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中国软件:香港及新加坡路演纪要

2025-11-11 汇丰前海证券 话唠
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EquitiesSoftware HK/SG marketingtakeaways China ◆3Q25 earnings recoveryattractsmore interestfrom investors◆AI monetisation and localisation ideas areafocus◆We preferSangfor,Yonyou, Kingdee,Kingsoft Office andThunderSoft, all rated Buy Yiran Liu* (Reg. No. S1700520040001)Head of A-share IT Software ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedyiran1.liu@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 10 5795 2349 Heng Zhang* (Reg. No. S1700524050001)Analyst, A-share IT Software ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedheng.zhang@hsbcqh.com.cn+86 10 5795 2384 We highlight the key takeaways from our marketing inHong Kong and Singaporeinearly Novemberbelow. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 3Q25 earnings recovery key highlights.3Q25totalnet profitfor our covered18software namesrose92%y-o-y, a decent recovery. Investorswe metgenerally agreethatdownside from tighterIT budgetsis limited giventhebase is verylow andimpactsfrom cost controlshould continue todriveearnings recovery. Meanwhile,theoverallcompetition landscape is improving with smaller players exitingthe market.As AI andlocalisation are clear revenue drivers, relevant names areinfocus. AI monetisationideas are popular.Investorsshow stronginterestinAIapplications’monetisation andbelieve two ERP names (Yonyou and Kingdee) should benefit.InAIinfrastructure, investors prefer Sangfor for its high operating leverage and strongmanagement execution.Mostinvestors believe the continued earnings recovery coulddrive further valuation re-rating, butthevaluation benchmark is unclear as earningshaven’t reachedstablelevelsfor most AIsoftwarenames.Investorsare also interestedin what they believe to behigh-quality AI A-share software namesthat areseekingH-share listing,e.g.YonyouandIntsig,fortheirdecent valuation discounts. Localisationexposure–Kingsoft Office.Investors like thesoftwarelocalisationstory,butfinditdifficult to trade as the timeline is uncertain.Theylike Kingsoft Office’sAI and localisationangles,buthavemixed views on valuation.Some investorsmentionedconcernsaboutits highvaluation,but some believethevaluation isreasonableforthemid to longer term,given its high earnings visibility and close tomonopoly industry position. Keysectordownside risks.A weak macro economy could lead to tight IT budgets;intense competition; and policy support magnitude coming in below expectations. Issuer of report:HSBC Qianhai Securities LimitedView HSBCQianhai Securitiesat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Disclosures & DisclaimerThisreport must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates Source: Wind, HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates Related reports ◆Yonyou Network (600588 CH):Buy: Eye on AI and cloud transition,4 November 2025◆ThunderSoft (300496 CH):Buy: Key beneficiary of the on-device AI wave,31 October 2025◆Sangfor (300454 CH):Buy: AI monetisation & global expansion to continue,30 October2025◆Kingdee (268 HK):Initiate at Buy: Ready to bear fruit,23 October 2025◆Kingsoft Office (688111 CH):Buy: Remain a key beneficiary of software localisation,17October 2025◆China Software: AI series (6): Smooth AI monetisation with changes in competition,10September 2025◆China Software: AI series (5): Strong SOEs’ AI demand should bring upside, 11 July 2025◆China Software: AI series (4): AI monetisation reality check, 11 April 2025◆China Software: AI series (3): Implications from previous technology cycles, 5 March 2025◆China Software: AI series (2): Opportunities in all-in-one servers, 27 February 2025◆China Software: AI series: Software infrastructure providers are early beneficiaries,18February 2025◆China software: DeepSeek-R1 marks further AI monetisation, 5 February 2025◆China Software: AI monetisation should accelerate, 9 January 2025 Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report,including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Yiran Liu and Heng Zhang Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its aff