能源转型的产业政策：关键矿产，关键决策

Industrial Policy for the Energy Transition Critical Minerals,Critical Decisions Industrial Policy for the Energy Transition Acknowledgements Abbreviations Table of contents I. Introduction..............................................................................................................1 II. Mapping the Geography of Critical Energy Transition Minerals: GlobalProduction, Value Chains and Economic Implications......................................5 Transition Minerals...............................................................................................213.1The Case for Industrial Policy.........................................................................................22 IV.Case Studies........................................................................................................31 V. Towards an Operative Agenda for Critical Minerals Governance.....................45Appendix: Data, Methods and Construction of Figures 4-7..................................48References................................................................................................................50 Executive Summary and rare earth elements - are at the core of the global shift to low-carbon energy systems. Fordeveloping countries, these resources offer both a major opportunity for structural transformationand a risk of renewed dependency if managed without a coherent industrial strategy. navigating constraints imposed by global trade rules, investment treaties, and shifting geopolitics.Regional cooperation and value-chain integration are identified as essential to expand markets,share infrastructure, and build collective resilience. moving from mining to processing. It should aim to foster broader economic diversification bystrengthening backward, forward, and lateral linkages between the mining sector and otherproductive sectors of the economy, to harness critical minerals for structural transformation and Zambia), the report finds converging policy priorities: capability building, value addition,sustainable governance, and institutional coordination. Key Recommendations consider adopting integrated governance and industrial policy frameworks aligned with nationaland regional priorities. This requires: mining linkages across the economy through targeted incentives, technology transfer,and skills formation. while preserving policy space. to link resource extraction with long-term diversification. of the value chain. research to deepen value addition and diversification, and strengthen collective bargainingpower. low-carbon industrialization and shared prosperity. I. Introduction II. Mapping the Geographyof Critical Energy TransitionMinerals: Global Production,Value Chains and Economic of Critical EnergyTransition Minerals Characteristics of CETMs Resource Endowmentsinto Development Gains Added value from extracting to processing selected CETMs, 2022 The case of Lithium transition through its central role for rechargeable batteries in electric vehicles andstationary storage. Demand for lithium has grown steeply over the past decade andis projected to expand further as electrification accelerates. Yet both reserves andproduction remain highly geographically concentrated, creating structural vulnerabilitiesfor producers and consumers alike. As shown in Figure 4, global reserves are primarilylocated in the “lithium triangle” of Chile and Argentina where brine-based resources Figure 4.Share of global lithium reserves and refining and processing capacity, 2023. value added as a share of GDP. The figure reveals that only China—and to a lesserextent Australia—combines high output with a sizeable manufacturing base. Othermajor producers, including Chile and Argentina, exhibit relatively low manufacturingintensity. This implies that, while they are resource-rich, their ability to capture domesticvalue from the lithium economy remains constrained by limited industrial depth Figure 5.Mined lithium production (share of output, 2023) and manufacturing value added (percentage of GDP, 2022) combining country tertiles for (i) production shares and (ii) manufacturing value added. Implications for domestic policy support. expanding extraction, but in building upstream and downstream capabilities thatreduce vulnerability to price volatility and enhance domestic value addition. Thisincludes investment in refining and processing, incentives for battery-adjacent The case of Rare Earth Elements technologies, from electric motors and wind turbines to advanced electronics,defense systems and high-performance magnets. Although REEs are relativelyabundant in the earth’s crust, economically viable deposits are limited, and extraction global REE mining output and over 85 per cent of refining and separation capacity.Other countries with notable reserves—including Viet Nam, Brazil, India and theUnited States—contribute modestly to global extraction and even less to downstreamprocessing.