迈向东盟-日本下一代汽车产业总体规划，协调产业转型、脱碳和区域竞争力

Policy Brief Towards an ASEAN–Japan Next-GenerationVehicle Industry Masterplan AligningIndustrial Transformation, Decarbonisation, Key Messages: 1.ASEAN’s automotive transitionmustfollowvariedandcarefully sequenced pathways. A differentiated transition thatsustainsinternal combustionengine (ICE) and hybrid electric(HEV) vehicle production whilescaling plug-in electric vehicle(xEV) is essential to preserve ASEAN’s automotive industry is entering a critical transition phase as electrification,digitalisation, and decarbonisation reshape global vehicle markets. While electricvehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating across ASEAN, the region faces structuralchallenges: policy uncertainty, prolonged market stagnation, and fragmentedindustrial competitiveness. At the same time, ASEAN remains a vital production 2.Policy predictability–nottechnology – is now the mainconstraintoninvestment. This policy brief draws on ERIA’s ongoing work under the ASEAN–Japan Co-CreationInitiative and the proposed ASEAN–Japan Next-Generation VehicleIndustry Masterplan. It argues that ASEAN’s transition should followvaried,differentiated pathwaysrather than a single, linear electrification trajectory. Aphased and diversified approach– combining ICE, HEV, xEV, sustainable fuels, Clear, credible, and regionallyalignedpolicysignalsareurgentlyneeded to unlockprivateinvestment in next-generation vehicles and supply The brief outlines a strategic framework built around three pillars: (i) technologyandmarket transition pathways;(ii)industrial transformation throughdecarbonisation, digitalisation, and servitisation; and (iii) strengthened regionaland ASEAN–Japan collaboration. It concludes with policy recommendationsto enhance policy predictability, mobilise investment, and position ASEAN as a 3.FragmentationiserodingASEAN’sautomotivecompetitivenessrelativetoChinaandIndia.Withoutdeeperregionalintegrationandmarket 1. Background: ASEAN at a Turning Point in Automotive Transformation 4.ASEAN–Japanco-creationprovidesanactionablepathwayfromstrategytoimplementation.TargetedcollaborationwithJapan can accelerate supplier ASEAN countries are shifting into a higher gear in the global race toward next-generation vehicle manufacturing. Several ASEAN Member States (AMS) aremoving beyond their traditional roles as vehicle importers or assemblers and areincreasingly positioning themselves as full-fledged producers across a range of Recent developments illustrate this momentum. In December 2025, Malaysia’slargest automaker, Perodua, unveiled its first domestically developed electricvehicle (EV), the QV-E – marking the emergence of ASEAN’s second national EVbrand after Viet Nam’s VinFast. Indonesia, meanwhile, has adopted a transitionstrategy similar to Thailand’s, leveraging foreign investment and policy incentivesto develop domestic EV manufacturing capacity. Between February 2024 and As a result, BEV sales in ASEAN are projected to reach 12%–17% of total vehiclesales in 2025 – significantly higher than global averages just two years earlier.These figures reflect strong policy signals and rising consumer acceptance. Yet beneath this encouraging momentum lie deeper structural challenges thatthreaten ASEAN’s long-term competitiveness if left unaddressed. This approach balances near-term economic resilience withlong-term technological transformation. 2. Structural Challenges Facing ASEAN’s AutomotiveIndustry 2.1. Investment Hesitation amidst Policy Uncertainty 4.Strategic Framework I:Technology and MarketTransition Pathways ERIA surveys indicate that automotive suppliers and originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)remain cautious aboutcommitting new investment in next-generation technologies.The primary concern is not technological readiness, but policy 4.1. 2025–2035: Dual-Track Development During the next decade, ASEAN should prioritise meetingstrong regional demand for ICE and HEVs while acceleratingxEV market development. Sustainable biofuels play a crucial Inconsistent policy signals increase investment risk and delaycapital-intensive decisions, especially for suppliers embedded Policypredictability is critical during this phase.Cleartimelines for incentive schemes, localisation requirements,and emissions standards will help firms plan investments andavoid abrupt disruptions. 2.2. Prolonged Market Stagnation ASEAN’s automotive market has stagnated for more than adecade. Combined annual vehicle sales have not exceeded 3.4million units since 2012. This stagnation deepened in 2023– 4.2. Beyond 2035: Integration into Global xEV Value Chains Beyond 2035, ASEAN should emphasise low-emission HEVssupported by sustainable biofuels and e-fuels, alongside amature xEV ecosystem. This transition positions ASEAN notmerely as an assembly base, but as an integrated supplier of Weakdemand growth constrains economies of scale,discourages investment in new technologies, and limits theability of firms to absorb transition costs. 2.3. Fragmented Trade Co