净零2050：将泰国的愿景转化为行动

Content Content Executive Summary3 Net Zero 2050: Thailand's Ambitious New Milestone4 How Thailand’s Net Zero Target ComparesGlobally?6 Key Factors Shaping Thailand’s Path to Net Zero Who Faces Disruption or Gains from Net Zero? Krungsri Research View: How Can ThailandAchieve Net Zero? References Disclaimer Unlessexplicitly stated otherwise,this publication and all material therein isunder the copyright ofKrungsri Research. As such, the reuse, reproduction, oralteration of this text or any part thereof is absolutely prohibited without priorwrittenconsent.This report draws on a wide range of well-established andtrustworthysources,but Krungsri Research can make no guarantee of theabsolute veracity of the material cited. Moreover,KrungsriResearch will not beheld responsible for any losses that may occur either directly or indirectly from For research subscription, contactkrungsri.research@krungsri.com Executive Summary Thailand has pledged a new Net Zero target for 2050, bringing the deadline forward by 15 years from itsprevious commitment, and aims to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by-47% by 2035compared to 2019 levels. This compels every sector of the economy to accelerate its transition toward alow-carbon economy. The energy and transport sectors, as the country's largest sources of GHG emissions,must urgently shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles. Meanwhile, industrial sectors such as cement, steel, and chemicals will face regulatory pressures from both domestic and internationalmeasures, requiring them to restructure production processes toward low-carbon products to remain Prapan Leenoi Analystprapan.leenoi@krungsri.com Net Zero 2050: Thailand's Ambitious At the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(COP30) in November 2025,Thailand announced a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target for 2050(Net Zero 2050), bringing the timeline forward by 15 years from its previous commitment of 2065 (NetZero 2065).This pledge aligns with global efforts to limit the rise in average global temperatures to no The Net Zero 2050 target forms part of Thailand's latest Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC),known as NDC 3.0,which provides the framework for reducing GHG emissions during the period 2031–2035, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Reduce net GHG emissions by-47% by 2035compared to 2019 levels—meaning Thailand aims tolimit net GHG emissions to no more than 152 milliontonnesof CO2equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2035, nearly half the 287 MtCO2e recorded in 2019 (Figure 2). By 2050, Thailand must reach net-zero GHGemissions, with emissions from all sectors approximately equal to removals from land use, land-usechange, and forestry (LULUCF). Split the GHG reduction target into (1) domestic action(unconditional target), accounting for 70%of the target,and (2) international support(conditional target), for the remaining 30%. Cover 5 sectors:energy (including transport), industrial processes and product use (IPPU),agriculture, waste, and land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Thailand's Greenhouse Gas Emissions This article analyzes the enabling factors and barriers to achieving Thailand's new Net Zero target, assesseswhich industries are likely to be most affected or to benefit from the transition to Net Zero, and ultimately How Thailand’s Net Zero TargetCompares Globally? Currently, more than 150 countries have announced Net Zero targets or related environmental goalssuch as carbon neutrality, carbon negativity, and climate neutrality. Over 130 countries have set a 2050target, including EU member states, Japan, Singapore, and Vietnam, while some have adopted moreambitious timelines, such as Antigua and Barbuda (2040) and Sweden and Nepal (2045). Others have set Thailand’s revised 2050 target therefore reflects a concerted effort to strengthen its climate policy in linewith global trends. By contrast, the previous Net Zero 2065 target placed Thailand among the least Key Factors Shaping Thailand’s Path to A critical question is whether Thailand can achieve its ambitious Net Zero target.To address this, KrungsriResearch assesses the factors influencing the achievement of Net Zero using a PESTEL framework,examining six dimensions: political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal (summarized Politics and Policy (P) Government has pursued Net Zero policy consistently, but progress depends on political dynamics. The Thai government has maintained a consistent commitment to Net Zero.In 2021, the government ofPrime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha announced the Net Zero 2065 target for the first time at COP26.Subsequently, in 2025, the government of Prime MinisterAnutinCharnvirakuladvanced the target to Net Zero 2050.Thailand has also developed aLong-Term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)covering all sectors, energy, agriculture, indu