铜周报：价格上涨可能放缓但仍处于上升趋势

Market News and Key Data Spot Market Conditions： During the week of December 13, 2025, the average price of SMM1# electrolytic copper ranged between 91,700 yuan/tonand 93,595 yuan/ton, showingan upward trend midweek. The SMM premium/discount quotation fluctuated between-20yuan/ton and 130 yuan/ton, gradually declining during the week. In terms of inventory, the LME stockpiled 0.14 milliontons to reach 16.59 million tons, while the ShanghaiFutures Exchange's inventory changed by 0.05 million tons to 8.94 Market Views： In terms of macros , during the week ending December 12, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut the target range for the federalfunds rate by 25 basis points to3.50%–3.75%.This marked the Fed’s third rate cut of the year, following reductions of thesame magnitude on September 17 and October 29. The meeting vote passed with 9 in favor and 3 against, as some and persistently high inflation. The Committee remains focused on the two-sided risks to its dual mandate.Additionally, itis worth noting that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, the Fed launched a monthly short-term Treasury Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference that monetary policy follows no presetcourse and decisions will be made meeting by meeting based on incoming data. While inflation remains elevated,non-tariff-driven core inflation has improved significantly. Without new tariffs, goods inflation is projected to peak in thefirst quarter of 2026. Interest rates are now at the upper end of the neutral range, with policy transitioning from restrictive The economic outlook remains solid, with the end of the governmentshutdown bolstering growth expectations for 2026.U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, arguing that the rate cut was too small In terms of minings, In the week of December 13, 2025, according to SMM, the SMM imported copper concentrate index(weekly) on December 12 reported-43.08 USD/dry ton, a decrease of 0.22 USD/dry ton from the previous period of-42.86 USD/dry ton. The pricing coefficientfor domestic trade concentrate with a 20% grade was set at 95%-97%. Startingfrom midweek, Antofagasta, a Chilean mining company, initiated negotiations on annual long-term contracts with major offering prices at the low positive level of 10 USD/ton. Both parties planned to continue discussions the following week.On the other hand, on December 11, under the guidance of the Trade and Economic Affairs Department of the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission, the China Agricultural Inputs Circulation Association and the Phosphate FertilizerIndustry Association jointly held a meeting to deploy measures for ensuring phosphate fertilizer supply and stabilizing In terms of smelting and imports, during the week of December 13, 2025, the premium for copper at Yangshan fluctuatedand adjusted, with the average transaction price of bills of lading reported at $47 per ton, a slight decrease of $0.4 per toncompared to the previous period. The average warehouse receipt price stood at $40.6 per ton, rising by $4. Concurrently,import losses were approximately 1,500 yuan per ton, while the LME copper market maintained a backwardated structure. In terms of scrap copper, as the year-end approaches, the bill market continues to tighten. It is reported that this week, thebill rate in Guangdong rose to 7%, an increase of 0.5% month-on-month, while in Jiangxi it reached 7.5%, with ayear-on-year growth close to 1%. On the corporate side, fluctuations remain relatively limited, with year-on-year gainsfalling short of 0.5%. Looking ahead, factors supporting copper prices are still accumulating, suggesting further upside In terms of consumption, during the week of December 13, 2025, the operating rate of major domestic copper rodproducersrecorded 64.54%,down 1.87 percentage points from the previous week and 17.83 percentage pointsyear-on-year. Due to high copper prices, downstream purchasing sentiment weakened as companies proactively slowedproduction to control finished goods inventory, which decreased by 5.14% to 69,250 tons. Meanwhile, raw materialprocurement remained cautious, with inventory dropping 2.57% to 26,500 tons. However, some downstream buyers still Trading Strategies Long Overall, copper prices remain firm due to expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming December FederalReserve meeting and typical year-end short-covering. However, as these supportive factors are expected to fade next week, Charts Figure1:Premium&Discount of flat copper丨Unit：yuan/ton............................................................................................4Figure2:Refined-Scrap Copper Spread丨Unit：yuan/ton...................................................................................................4Figure3:LME Copper Inventory丨Unit：10000 Tonnes...................................................................................................