Platinum deficits have been significant since 2023, with the metal leading the rally in both timing and extent. The fundamental strength of platinum is expected to persist into 2026, unlike palladium, which is anticipated to be balanced to modestly oversupplied in 2026. The report highlights several factors supporting platinum's price: (1) high autocat demand remaining above the 2018-22 rate, (2) positive performance in plug-in hybrid sales compared to BEVs, (3) a potential shift in jewellery fabricator substitution from gold to platinum, (4) rising lease rates indicating physical shortage, and (5) the possibility of depleted industrial stocks requiring restocking. However, the report cautions that the renaissance in platinum jewellery fabrication may not yet represent a similar rebirth in end-user demand, and the weakness in South African mined PGM volumes may be temporary. The report forecasts a palladium price of USD 1,250/oz in 2026, with a potential upside to USD 1,400/oz, implying a platinum price of USD 1,550/oz in 2026. Key data includes China platinum imports exceeding demand, plug-in hybrid sales outperforming forecasts while BEVs underperformed, platinum 3m lease rates rising to 16%, and South Africa PGM miners' margins over AISC improving from 10% to 15% this year. The report concludes with a caution that the timing of platinum's price rally remains uncertain, but the fundamental deficits are expected to support the metal's price into 2026.
