进入批发银行业的未知领域

2Michael J. Cyprys,CFA, CPAEQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 7619Michael.Cyprys@morganstanley.comBetsy L. Graseck, CFA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 8473Betsy.Graseck@morganstanley.comGiulia Aurora Miotto, CFAEQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425 5344Giulia.Aurora.Miotto@morganstanley.comConnell J. Schmitz1RESEARCH ASSOCIATE+1 212 761 6252Connell.Schmitz@morganstanley.comRyan Kenny, CFA1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 1664Ryan.Kenny@morganstanley.comManan Gosalia1EQUITY ANALYST+1 212 761 4092Manan.Gosalia@morganstanley.comAlvaro Serrano3EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425 6942Alvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comVishal Shah2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7677 2743Vishal.Shah6@morganstanley.comBruce Hamilton2EQUITY ANALYST+44 20 7425 7597Bruce.Hamilton@morganstanley.com1 Morgan Stanley & Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+Morgan StanleyAuthors Dylan WalshPartner+1 646 364 8676Dylan.Walsh@oliverwyman.comRonan O’KellyPartner+44 7733 156894Ronan.OKelly@oliverwyman.comMing Min LeePartner+1 646 364 8693MingMin.Lee@oliverwyman.comChristopher RigbyPartner+44 7751 234684Christopher.Rigby@oliverwyman.comMariya RosbergPartner+1 646 364 8448Mariya.Rosberg@oliverwyman.comElisa HainingPrincipal+44 7759 021920Elisa.Haining@oliverwyman.comSam MaeglinAssociate+1 646 831 4925Sam.Maeglin@oliverwyman.comSimone MarschallAssociate+44 7385 423823Simone.Marschall@oliverwyman.comNoa Blane DamelinConsultant+44 7702 954885Noa.BlaneDamelin@oliverwyman.comOliver Wyman 2 Morgan Stanley ResearchStephanie Ma1RESEARCH ASSOCIATEStephanie.Ma@morganstanley.comChuma Nwanko,CFA1RESEARCH ASSOCIATEChuma.Nwankwo@morganstanley.comMarina Massuti2RESEARCH ASSOCIATEMarina.Massuti@morganstanley.comAndrei Stadnik, FIAA3EQUITY ANALYSTAndrei.Stadnik@morganstanley.comMia Nagasaka4EQUITY ANALYSTMia.Nagasaka@morganstanleymufg.comNick Lord5EQUITY ANALYSTNick.Lord@morganstanley.comRichard Xu,CFA6EQUITY ANALYSTRichard.Xu@morganstanley.comChiyao Huang6EQUITY ANALYSTChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com1 Morgan Stanley & Co LLC2 Morgan Stanley & Co. International PLC+3 Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+4 Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., LTD.+5 Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) PTE.+6 Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Morgan StanleyContributors Huw van SteenisVice ChairHuw.VanSteenis@oliverwyman.comNikolai DienerowitzPartnerNikolai.Dienerowitz@oliverwyman.comMichael MagumbeSenior Research AnalystMichael.Magumbe@oliverwyman.comJulian AdlerEngagement ManagerJulian.Adler@oliverwyman.comJulia HillenbrandAssociateJulia.Hillenbrand@oliverwyman.comOliver Wyman 45Executive Summary6Industry Outlook10US Capital Rules and Value Shifts15Management Actions20ConclusionContents Morgan Stanley ResearchThe wholesale banking industry1 has spent the years since theGlobal Financial Crisis (GFC) reshaping its business model to increaseresilience and generate sustainable returns. The transformation hasbeen profound, but the industry must now respond to two new andsignificant shifts in the operating environment:•The end of the easy monetary policy and fiscal stimulussupercycle, already under way•The introduction of a new capital regime worldwide, albeitwith highly uncertain parameters and timelines for imple-mentation across different jurisdictionsWe expect these changes to influence the revenue and returns out-look for the industry. In March of this year, rapidly rising interest ratestriggered a contained banking crisis that challenged some long-standing assumptions about liquidity and interest rate risk manage-ment in banking. Structurally higher interest rates put the brakes ondemand for the Advisory and Underwriting business that fueledindustry revenues and returns through the pandemic. And new cap-ital rules, particularly the Basel 3 Endgame rules proposed by US reg-ulators, have the potential to structurally change the economics ofwholesale banking and drive activity out of the banking system in anextreme scenario.We have created a framework to assess the impact of proposedchanges to capital rules on the economics (and potentially the perim-eter) of wholesale banking.The range of potential outcomes is wide, given significant uncertaintyover the final rules that will be implemented and the mitigatingactions that banks can take. We estimate that risk-weighted assets(RWA) required to support the existing US wholesale bankingindustry would rise 35% under the proposed new US capital rules,which are more conservative than global standards but subject tochange. Competition from international banks and non-banks isfierce and, in the unlikely event that the proposed rules pass in theircurrent form, we could see up to ~$40BN (~13%) in revenue exit USbanks through value shifts and capacity reductions.Not all the news for banks is bad. Structurally higher interest rateswill drive stronger revenues and returns for banks with sizeableTransaction Banking and Securities Services businesses. In our basecase, we project that these businesses will have grown 39% and 14%respectively between 2020-2025 to represent 29% of the