2025年工业技术展望

EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH2025 IndustrialTechnology Outlook PitchBook Data, Inc. Nizar Tarhuni Executive Vice President ofResearch and Market Intellgence Paul Condra Head of EmergingTechnology Beisarch Our analysts' outlook on industrial technology in 2025 Institutional Research Group Analysl: PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Senior AnalystJim CorridoreIndustrials Senlor Analyst,GaurkinkEmerging lechnology 2025outlooks p. 2Aerospace & defense: Commercial aerospace will benefit from Boeing-fueled supply chain shortages. r Analyst, EmerginTushnulogy p. 4Supply chain tech; Erosion of the free-trade regirne will drive dermarid forsupply chain tracking and visibility solutions. Alex FrederickSenior AnalystEmweging Tahaulugyalex.troderici.coitchbook.com P. 6Carbon & emissions tech: Carbon capture and green chermical productioristartups will lace project delays arid cancellations due to competition forlow-carbon energy. UatHarrison WaldockUata Analyst p. 9Clean energy: vC deal value for non-lithium-battery chemistries will growwhile lithium battery VC deal value falls. pbinstitutionalresearchgppitchbook.cem p. 11Agtech: Policy changes by US President-elect Donald Trump will drivesignificant investment in farm automation and productivity tools. Publishing p.14 Analyst Q&A Designed by Chlee Ladwis Published on December 20, 2024 PitchBook AEROSPACE&DEFENSE Senior Anslysl, IrkJuslrialsJim Corridorejirn.corridore(Fpilchbook.corn Outlook:Commercial aerospace will benefit fromBoeing-fueled supply chain shortages. Rationale Bocing has had a hard timc recently, and nuch of it has bccn sclf-inflicted. Thecompany's production rates have bcen severely irnpacted by aircraft grounidings.quality control issues, and most recently, a machinist strike that lasted 53 daystheimpact of which should last wellinto 2025. Production of Boeing's 737 MAX and 787were both halted during the strike. Despite a goal to produce 38 737 MAX aircraftper month, the company was producing only 24 per month prior to the strike.Getting back to even that level will be difficult, and we believe that the time neededto get back to 38 will go well into or even beyond 2025. At the same time, Airbus hasbeen producing 50 A320 aircraft per month, with a goal of 65, without many of thesame disruptions Boeing faces. The lower Boeing production rates have left the commercial aerospace industry witha lessthan-optirrial numbcr of ncw plancs in its ccosystcrn, which is particularlytroublesornic given thc strong commercial acrospace dcrnand forccast in the USand China, as well as a recovered air trarisport demanid envirorrment, We cxpectthe overall effect of this to be more older planes in service than would otherwise bewhile older planes are as safe as newer aircraft, they need increased maintenanceas they age to remain so. The PE impact of this trend is that money has already been flowing to deals incommercial aerospace parts as well as to maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO)shops. Both of these categories participate in fragmented industries and enjoy goodrevenue visibility due to customer relationships and strong dermand. They are also PitchBook good candidates for combinations to create scale with customers and suppliers.2025, based partly on Boeing's issues but also due to the strength of commercialaerospace, which remains in a long-term secular uptrend. Given our forecast thatBoeing will be unable to ramp up prodluction at the rate it projects, older planes willMRO services. At the same time, repair and maintenance of these planes will driveincrcascd parts usagc. In thc first rinc rrlonths of 2024, the aircraft parts & cornporicnts category withiraerospace & defense saw 74 deals closed or announcedan amount equal to thedeals in the first nine months of the year, versus 25 in 2023 and 19 in 2022. Risks If we are wrong in our forecast, there will still be strong demand for aircraft partsover the next year. The focus on parts will shift to parts used in the creation of thedernand continue but decelerate once maintenance backlogs are cleared. Newplancs still rcquirc rriaintenancc, and thc ovcrall dcrrland curvc for acrospace &defcrisc suggests that maintenance of aircraft will continuc to be a strong catcgorywithin acrospace & defenise for rnary years to corrc. PitchBook SUPPLY CHAIN TECHOutlook: Erosion of the free-trade regime willdrive demand for supply chain tracking andvisibility solutions. Jonathan GeurkinkSenior Anslysl, Erierging Techmologyjonathan.geurkink(pitchbook.corn Rationale The US appears poised to turn its back on the free-trade regime it helped establishand bolstered in the decades following World War IIl. Threats of tariffs levied ongoods from both friend and foe are likely to spur higher tariffs for US exports inresponse, resulting in greater supply chain uncertainty and volatility o