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NOVEMBER 2024 PAKISTAN’S LOW-CARBONENERGY OUTLOOK ANDTECHNOLOGY ROAD MAP NOVEMBER 2024 Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2024 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2024. ISBN 978-92-9270-968-6 (print); 978-92-9270-969-3 (PDF); 978-92-9270-970-9 (ebook)Publication Stock No. TCS240489-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TCS240489-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. Corrigenda to ADB publications may be found at http://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda. Notes:In this publication, “$” refers to United States dollars, “¥” refers to Japanese yen, and “PRs” refers to Pakistan rupees.ADB recognizes “China” as the People’s Republic of China. Cover design by Mike Cortes. CONTENTS Tables and FiguresAcknowledgmentsAbbreviationsExecutive SummaryIntroduction Total Final Energy Demand11Total Primary Energy Supply15Structure of Electricity Generation20Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions25 3Alternative Energy Sources and Efficiency Improvements NuclearHydroNatural GasWind PowerSolarCoalSupply-Side Emissions MitigationBuildingsIndustryTransportCookingAgricultureDemand-Side Emissions Mitigation 4Investment Cost and Financing Options 63 Government Initiatives65Private Sector Investment66Bank Credit and Bonds69Green Bonds71International Financial Assistance: Multilaterals and Bilaterals73Support for Energy Efficiency76 5Conclusions81 Appendix88 References TABLES AND FIGURES Tables 1Population Projection for Pakistan32Gross Domestic Product Projection for Pakistan33Summary of Low-Carbon Interventions Adopted in the Low-Carbon Scenario44Key Technologies Considered in the Model45Compound Annual Growth Rate of Final Energy Demand by Major Fuels from 2030–2050Low-Carbon Scenario126Annual Growth of Energy Consumption by User Sector—Both Scenarios147Compound Annual Growth Rate of Domestic Primary Energy Supply by Various Fuel Commoditiesfrom 2030–2050 Under a Business-as-Usual Scenario178Compound Annual Growth Rate of Energy Import by Fuel Type from 2030–2050Under a Business-as-Usual Scenario179Compound Annual Growth Rate of Domestic Primary Energy Supplyby Various Fuel Commodities18from 2030–2050 Under a Low-Carbon Scenario10Compound Annual Growth Rate of Energy Import by Fuel Type from 2030–205019Under a Low-Carbon Scenario11Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Nuclear Power3612Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Hydropower3913Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Natural Gas-Based Power4214Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Wind Power4515Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Solar Photovoltaic4916Barriers and Enablers for Future Development for Coal-Based Power5217Supply-Side Mitigation Potential and Abatement Cost Different Fuels, Low-Carbon Scenario5318Barriers and Enablers for Energy Efficiency Application in Buildings5419Barriers and Enablers for Application of Energy Efficiency Measures for Industry5620Barriers and Enablers for Electric Vehicles5821Barriers and Enablers for Energy Efficiency in Cooking5922Barriers and Enablers for Future Development of Energy Efficiency in Agriculture6023Demand-Side Mitigation Potential and Abatement Cost User Sectors