2025年第一季度天然气市场报告

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines the full spectrum of energyissues including oil, gas and coal supply anddemand, renewable energy technologies,electricity markets, energy efficiency, access toenergy, demand side management and muchmore. Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energy in its 32Member countries,13Association countries andbeyond. SpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEAMember countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak Republic TheEuropean Commissionalso participates in the workof the IEA This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area. IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraine Revised version, January2025Information notice found at:www.iea.org/corrections Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Global consumption of natural gas returned to structural growth in2024, reaching an all-time high. Gas demand is expected to increasefurther in 2025, primarily supported by fast-growing Asian markets. Atthe same time, the global gas balance remains fragile, with thesupply side remaining tight and geopolitical tensions continuing tofuel price volatility. While the halt of Russian piped gas transit viaUkraine on 1 January 2025 should not pose an imminent supplysecurity risk for the European Union, it could increase the EU’s LNGimport requirements and tighten market fundamentals this year. This edition of the quarterlyGas Market Reportby the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) provides a thorough review of marketdevelopments in 2024 and an outlook for 2025. As part of the IEA’sLow-Emissions Gases Work Programme, the report includes asection dedicated to policy and market developments related tobiomethane, low-emissions hydrogen and e-methane. The current gas market context highlights the need for responsibleproducers and consumers to work together to reinforce thearchitecture for secure global gas supplies. To support this, the IEAestablished in late 2024 a permanent Working Party on Natural Gasand Sustainable Gases Security (GWP), building on the Agency’slongstanding gas security activities, including the work of the TaskForce on Gas and Clean Fuels Market Monitoring and SupplySecurity. Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................................................ 5Key gas policies and market trends in 2024 ................................................................................ 10Gas market update....................................................................................................................... 27Low-emissions gases................................................................................................................... 64Annex ........................................................................................................................................... 77 Global gas demand reached a new all-time high in 2024, with the balance remaining fragile Following the supply shock of 2022/23, natural gas markets movedtowards a gradual rebalancing and returned to structural growth lastyear.Globalgas demand reached a new all-time highin 2024and is expected to expand further in 2025, primarily supported bysome fast-growing markets in Asia. Meanwhile, theglobal gasmarket balance remains fragile. Below-average growth inliquefied natural gas (LNG) output has keptsupply tight, whileextreme weather eventshave added to market strains.Geopolitical tensionshave continued to fuel price volatility.Though thehalt of Russian piped gas transit via Ukraineon 1January 2025 does not pose an imminent supply security risk forthe European Union, it could increase LNG import requirements andtighten market fundamentals in 2025. were the primary drivers behind global trends and met almost 45%of demand growth. There was a modest recovery in Europe’sindustrial gas demand, although it remained well below pre-crisislevels. Natural gas continues to displace oil and oil products invarious sectors. This trend is supported by policies, regulationsand market dynamics. In theMiddle East, oil-to-gas switching inthe power sector continued in 2024. In road transport, the rapidscaling up of LNG-fuelled trucks in China– with record sales in2024 – has contributed to lower diesel demand there. The use ofLNG as abunkering fuelis also expected to increase amid morestringent emissions regulations for shipping. The displacement of oiland oil products in these sectors i