在中国疫苗市场供需动态变化中的战略领导

AIMVaccine(6660.HK):Strategic LeadershipAmid Changes inChina's Vaccine Market Supplyand Demand Dynamics Initiating Coverage ReportJanuary21,2025 Price(20 Jan 2025)HK$5.57Target Price (31Jan2026)HK$11.0Expectedshare price return97.7%Market CapHK$67,46M AIM Vaccine (6660.HK) stands out as a leading, full-industry-chainvaccinecompany in China,with strong R&D, manufacturing, andcommercializationcapabilities.The company has built a robust portfoliowith five advanced vaccine technology platforms, four wholly-ownedmanufacturing facilities, and eight commercialized products (i.e.freeze-dried human rabies, HBV, and HAV vaccines). Its pipeline of 22 vaccinecandidates targets 13 disease areas, includingleading global vaccinecategories. Operating in all 31 provinces in China and expandinginternationally with exports to Pakistan, Tajikistan, Egypt, and Cô ted’Ivoire, AIM Vaccine is strategically positioned for growth. By 2025, thecompany’s core products (HBV and rabies vaccines) are expected tostabilize, while next-generation products—such as serum-free rabies,PCV13, MCV4, and mRNA-based RSV and shingles vaccines—are setto drive transformative growth(2024-2027E revenue CAGR 47%, 2025Ebreakeven, 2027E NP RMB1.52billion). Using a DCF model, we derivea 12-month target price of HK$11.0(January2026), reflecting a97.7%upside from theclosing price onJanuary20, 2025. We initiate coveragewitha Buy rating,supported by AIM Vaccine’s robust pipeline,technological leadership, and international growth potential. Research Department,FosunInternational Securities Limitedresearch@fosunwealth.com Investment Thesis： 1)Industry Consolidation & Leadership in High-Value Segments:TheChinese vaccine market is evolving, aligning with global trends towardconsolidation and dominanceby high-value products and leadingenterprises. As the supply side consolidates, companies with globallycompetitive technology, diverse product portfolios, and strong R&D-to-salesexecution will prevail.AIM Vaccine,with its differentiatedadvantages, isuniquely positioned to lead in the domestic market whilescaling internationally. 2)Comprehensive&Iterative Product Portfolio:AIM Vaccine’sextensive portfolio targets high-value categories, including a robustrabies vaccine lineup (Vero cell,serum-free,human diploid, and mRNA)and pneumococcal vaccines (PCV13, PPSV23, and PCV20).Takingrabies vaccines as an example, by transitioning from traditional Vero cell-based vaccines to advancedserum-free,human diploid and mRNAplatforms, the company enhancesits market share, pricing power, andprofitability.Other blockbuster pipeline candidates, such as MCV4, theEV71-CA16 bivalenthand-foot-monthvaccine, and mRNA-based RSVand shingles vaccines, further underpin long-term growth. 3)Advanced R&D and Manufacturing Capabilities:AIM Vaccineleverages five cutting-edge vaccine technology platforms—bacterial, viral, genetically engineered, combination, and mRNA—along withGMP-certified facilities to ensure consistent quality and supply stability.Its validated mRNA platform, proven during COVID-19, reinforces itsleadership in next-generation vaccine innovation. 4)Expansive Distribution Network & Global Reach:The company’scomprehensive sales network spans all 31 provinces in China, effectivelynavigating bothpublic and private markets. Internationally, AIM Vaccineisexpanding rapidly,exporting products such as rabies andmeningococcal vaccines to emerging markets like Pakistan, Egypt,Tajikistan, and Côte d’Ivoire. Efforts to secure WHO prequalificationcould open significant opportunities in low-and middle-income countries. Market Differentiation:While market sentiment often centers oncompetitive pressures and pricing challenges within China’s vaccineindustry, we adopt a more optimistic view. AIMVaccine’s diversifiedproduct portfolio, technological edge, and global expansion strategycreate a compelling investment opportunity. With a suite of high-valueproducts launching in the near term and profitability set to rebound from2025, the company is positioned for strong growth and a potential re-rating of its valuation. Valuation & Investment Recommendation:We project 2032 financialmetrics: risk-adjusted revenue ofRMB9.949billion, net profit attributableto the parent company ofRMB3.939billion, and free cash flow ofRMB2.789billion.Using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and applyinga 15% discount rate and 2% perpetual growth rate, we estimate a 12-month valuation (January 2026) ofRMB12.58billion, equating to3.19x2026 sales and1.26x risk-adjusted peak sales in 2032. This offersa97.7% upside from theclosing price onJanuary20, 2025. We initiatecoverage with a Buy rating, citing the company’s strong growth prospectsand attractive valuation. Risk Factors：IntenseCompetition & Market Share Loss; R&D andProductLaunch Risks;Challenges in Promoting New Products;Technology Development Risks; Vaccine Quality Concerns; GeopoliticalRisks Table of Contents 1.INVESTMENT THESIS: A COMPREHENSIVE LEADERIN CH