瑞银G10和新兴市场外汇交易员电话会20241129

2024年12月01日10:28 关键词关键词 treasury nominations hedge funds CPI 全文摘要全文摘要 本次对话涵盖了金融市场多个关键议题，包括特朗普政策对市场持续的影响、美国政治局势、俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突、美元和欧元汇率变动，以及全球各地区中央银行政策预期调整。特别关注了加拿大元和人民币的走势，分析了欧洲PMI数据、以色列与土耳其经济状况，以及罗马尼亚政治对货币的效应。巴西和日本的货币政策，以及亚洲市场对美元的态度也成为了讨论焦点。 瑞银瑞银-G10和新兴市场外汇交易员电话会和新兴市场外汇交易员电话会20241129_导读导读 2024年12月01日10:28 关键词关键词 treasury nominations hedge funds CPI 全文摘要全文摘要 本次对话涵盖了金融市场多个关键议题，包括特朗普政策对市场持续的影响、美国政治局势、俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突、美元和欧元汇率变动，以及全球各地区中央银行政策预期调整。特别关注了加拿大元和人民币的走势，分析了欧洲PMI数据、以色列与土耳其经济状况，以及罗马尼亚政治对货币的效应。巴西和日本的货币政策，以及亚洲市场对美元的态度也成为了讨论焦点。整体而言，对话强调了政治事件、经济数据对市场敏感性，及其对全球货币走向和投资者策略的重要影响。 章节速览章节速览 ● 00:00金融市场分析：特朗普影响、美欧政治及经济动态金融市场分析：特朗普影响、美欧政治及经济动态 在过去的两周里，金融市场受到特朗普政治动态的显著影响，同时关注着美国与俄罗斯、乌克兰的国际关系，以及国内的政治动向，如财政政策和提名情况。市场对美国与欧洲之间的政治经济关系反应敏感，特别是在欧元与美元汇率、加拿大元波动以及全球主要货币的走势上。此外，还提到了日元、瑞郎和其他货币的市场情况，以及利率预期和市场风险偏好对不同货币的影响。整体而言，对话强调了当前金融市场中地缘政治、政策变化和经济数据对汇率的影响。 ● 06:48金融市场分析与投资策略讨论金融市场分析与投资策略讨论讨论了金融市场中的多种情况，包括美元和数字资产的市场动态，以及中国市场的特定表现。提到市场对一些事 件的反应，如美国大选后的影响和地缘政治的不确定性，还讨论了投资策略，如逢低买入美元、关注数字资产的特定区间，以及利用期权策略进行风险对冲。强调了对市场未来走势的预测和投资时机的选择。 ● 11:08金融市场分析：利率预测与货币走势金融市场分析：利率预测与货币走势讨论了多个货币市场的当前状况和未来预测，重点分析了土耳其和以色列的经济动态，以及罗马尼亚政治局势对 货币的影响。预计土耳其央行将在12月进行利率调整，但调整幅度可能小于市场预期。以色列货币走势受到地区和平协议预期的影响。罗马尼亚的总统选举结果对货币产生了短期压力，但市场预计长期将出现适度升值。同时，建议在欧洲市场寻找投资机会，考虑到政治因素对货币的影响。 ● 16:12巴西经济前景及美元指数策略分析巴西经济前景及美元指数策略分析讨论了巴西经济的当前状态和未来预期，以及美元指数的短期策略。提到巴西经济可能受益于未发布的利好消 息，预计2020年和2025年的经济规模将达到3000亿和4000亿美元，2026年增长到4000亿美元，合计7000亿美元。同时，分析了在美元指数交易中，关注点在于美元指数的下跌趋势及其背后反映出的市场对政策不确定性的担忧。强调了在2020美元水平作为进入市场的时机，并讨论了技术分析中的重要阻力位。此外，提到了近期市场出现的流动性紧张情况，以及这对维持市场稳定所带来挑战。最后，通过分析市场流动性及政策利率，指出了潜在的市场策略。 ● 18:42市场分析与投资策略讨论市场分析与投资策略讨论 讨论了市场的新常态，关注于基础投资的转变，强调了对美元的长期偏好，并提出了对亚洲市场的快速审视。提及了市场的不振和对特朗普政策的持续关注，以及对美元、日元和股市的看法。 要点回顾要点回顾 What are the main topics currently being focused on in the market? The main topics currently being focused on in the market include US politics and the Russian-Ukraine conflict. What significant political event is influencing currency markets? The significant political event influencing currency markets is the transition of power and相关政策fromthe current administration tothe new one led by President-elect Trump. What are the latest developments regarding the Russian-Ukraine conflict?There has been no news fromthe Russian-Ukraine conflict for the last couple of days. Howhave currency markets been affected by political and economic events? Currency markets have been affected by a combination of political uncertainty, as seen with the US election, economic indicatorssuch as PMI numbers, and sentiment towards risk, which has led to a clearer market position on the long side. What movements have been observed in the US dollar and howdoes this affect the global market?The US dollar isshowing signs of life with potential for a wider move, with the focus on the President-elect’s policies impacting the Canadian dollarsignificantly. What is the current sentiment and positioning in the G10 currency markets? The sentiment in the G10 currency markets is mostly downside focused with some short-terminterest, but it is cleaner than beforewith reduced uncertainty and more balanced positioning. What is the market’s viewon risk and howis it expected to shift in the coming weeks? The market is currently in a cleaner position with reduced risk, and it is expected to become even cleaner as we move forward,especially in terms of beta hedging, which is cheaper relative to the euro. What are the expectations for the yen and the interest surrounding the BoJ’s decision on hikinginterest rates? There has been minimal interest in the yen, with the focus being elsewhere, but there is potential for a significant move if the BoJ doeshike interest rates, which is currently not priced in by the market. What is the potential impact of upcoming events, such as the US elections and China dynamics, oncurrency markets? Upcoming events like the US elections and China dynamics are having an impact on currency markets, with the potential to influencethe value of various currencies, especially the yen and the renminbi. What is the current outlook for interest rates and what is the recommended strategy? The desk believes that interest rates are currently too high and anticipates a retraction. The recommended strategy is to own puts tohave short exposure on lower spots in the mediumtime. What are the expected outcomes for the upcoming central bank meeting in Turkey? The central bank in Turkey is expected to cut rates, but it may maintain large positive real rates. The rate cut path into next year isexpected to be very boring. Carry trades could continue despite lower rates, unless the central bank signals a different flow-wiseapproach. What is the current status of the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas? There is a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that is expected to be voted on by the cabinet this evening, with a potentialoutcome known by tomorrow. The move is supported by systematic and local selling, and there’s resistance to the move at thecurrent prices. The de