2024年年会董事总经理全球政策议程：确保软着陆，打破低增长高债务的道路（英）

Secure a Soft Landing and Break From the Low Growth–High Debt Path

Global Economic Resilience and Prospects

• Resilient Growth: The global economy has shown resilience, with projected growth remaining steady at 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025.
• Synchronized Activity: Advanced economies are becoming more synchronized, with output approaching potential levels as U.S. growth decelerates and euro area growth picks up.
• Emerging Markets: EMs have generally remained resilient, with growth driven primarily by emerging Asia. However, there is significant dispersion, and many low-income countries (LICs) remain vulnerable.
• Inflation: Global inflation has moderated due to tight monetary policy and fading supply shocks, though progress has been uneven, and the disinflation momentum has slowed.

Uncertainty and Risks

• Labor Market and Economic Activity: Concerns remain about the risk of a faster-than-expected cooling of labor markets and economic activity.
• Financial Volatility: Sudden spikes in financial market volatility and disruptive capital flows could negatively impact financing conditions and investment.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing wars and conflicts, including Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict, continue to impose significant human and economic costs.
• Policy Uncertainty: Elevated policy uncertainty due to social discontent, geopolitical and trade tensions.

Transition Away from Low Growth–High Debt Path

• Medium-Term Growth: Medium-term growth prospects remain tepid, with the lowest five-year projections in decades.
• Debt Levels: Global public debt is projected to reach 100% of world GDP by 2030, with the U.S. and China accounting for much of the increase.
• Economic Fragmentation: Geoeconomic fragmentation is reconfiguring global trade and capital flows, posing a threat to cross-border economic integration.
• Transformative Changes: Green transition, demographic shifts, and digitalization, including AI, are reshaping the global economy, presenting both challenges and opportunities.

Policy Agenda

Monetary Policy

• Inflation Targeting: Central banks should shift to a more neutral policy stance where underlying price pressures have diminished, supporting growth and employment.
• Clear Communication: Central bank independence and clear communication are crucial for maintaining credibility and managing inflation expectations.

Fiscal Policy

• Consolidation: Policymakers should pivot decisively toward fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability.
• Country-Specific Adjustments: The pace of fiscal adjustment should be tailored to country-specific circumstances, balancing debt vulnerabilities and private demand support.

Growth-Enhancing Reforms

• Labor Market Policies: Improving workers' skills and integrating newcomers can counter the impact of a shrinking workforce.
• Product Market Reforms: Enhancing competition and productivity through product market reforms.
• Gender Equality: Closing gender gaps in opportunities can boost labor force participation and output.
• Digitalization and Governance: Focusing on governance, business regulation, and digitalization to boost competitiveness, especially in EMs.

Financial Sector Policies

• Risk Management: Preparing for potential financial volatility through macroprudential policies and ensuring effective tools to respond.
• Monitoring Vulnerabilities: Close monitoring of commercial real estate, weaker banks, and nonbank financial institutions.

Multilateral Efforts

• Global Prosperity: Joint efforts are needed to address debt vulnerabilities, safeguard global trade, and harness the benefits of transformative changes.
• Support Vulnerable Countries: International support for countries with debt vulnerabilities to prevent liquidity challenges from turning into solvency crises.
• Protect Global Integration: Addressing geoeconomic fragmentation to preserve global trade and finance.