2024年亚太经合组织地区趋势报告

APEC Regional Trends Analysis, February 2024

GDP Growth and Outlook

• APEC GDP Growth: Estimated to have grown by 3.5% in 2023, up from 2.6% in 2022, in line with the global economy.
• Outlook: Projections suggest a continued growth trend, with the global economy, APEC, and the Rest of the World expected to grow at rates of 3.5%, 3.1%, and 3.1% respectively by 2025.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Inflation: APEC's average inflation rate decreased from 6.1% in December 2022 to 3.2% in December 2023.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks have implemented successive policy rate hikes to curb inflation, though caution is advised to avoid excessive tightening that could stifle economic growth.

Fiscal Space and Debt Management

• Fiscal Consolidation: High debt levels necessitate fiscal consolidation to manage debt, but overly aggressive measures could dampen economic growth.
• Currency Fluctuations: Weaker currencies complicate inflation management and create currency mismatches affecting debt and credit payments.

Trade Performance

• Merchandise Trade: Declined in 2023 due to reduced global demand and falling prices for non-fuel commodities and manufactures.
• Services Trade: Grew, driven by consumer spending and tourism, but growth decelerated.
• Trade Measures: The number of trade-restrictive measures in APEC increased, while trade-facilitating measures also grew, indicating ongoing challenges in trade.

Energy and Food Prices

• Energy Prices: Crude oil prices averaged around $85 per barrel, with fluctuations due to sluggish demand and improved supply of cereals and sugar.
• Food Prices: Slowed demand for oil and increased supply of cereals and sugar contributed to lower food prices.

Shipping Costs and Logistics

• Shipping Costs: Incidents in the Red Sea and drought in the Panama Canal raised shipping costs, extending sailing times and leading to container shortages and potential port congestion.

Strategic Recommendations

• Monetary Policy: Authorities should remain vigilant against inflation risks and be prepared to adjust policy rates as needed.
• Fiscal Policy: Prioritize fiscal consolidation and rebuild fiscal buffers to cushion against future economic shocks.
• Regional Cooperation: Continue multilateral coordination to promote and strengthen regional trade and address various challenges.

This analysis highlights the key trends and challenges facing the APEC economies, emphasizing the need for balanced monetary and fiscal policies and strengthened regional cooperation.