2024年纽约州总量控制交易和投资设计对空气质量的影响报告（英）

Air Quality Impacts of New York State Cap-Trade-and-Invest Design

Introduction

The New York Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC), New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), and the New York Governor are currently finalizing draft regulations for an economy-wide emissions cap-and-trade system (NYCI). Advocacy groups, such as New York City Environmental Justice Alliance and New York Renews, have called for guardrails to ensure compliance with the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (Climate Act) and equitable air quality improvements, particularly for disadvantaged communities (DACs).

Research Overview

Previous studies by Resources for the Future (RFF) and New York City Environmental Justice Alliance (NYC-EJA) found that the cap-and-trade program can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) and copollutant emissions. This issue brief uses a state-of-the-art atmospheric model to analyze the air quality impacts of different cap-and-trade policy designs.

Key Findings

1. Policy Cases and Air Quality Improvements

   • Business as Usual (BAU): No cap-and-trade program.

   • Electricity Not Obligated (ENOC): Cap-and-trade program implemented but not covering the electricity sector.

   • Full Trading Case (FTC): Cap-and-trade program covering all sectors with free allowance trading.

   • Restricted Trading Case (RTC): Cap-and-trade program with sector-specific and facility-specific caps.

   • Air Quality Benefits:

     • The greatest air quality improvements are seen in the Restricted Trading Case (RTC).
     • Disadvantaged communities and urban areas, particularly New York City, experience the most significant air quality improvements.
     • The Electricity Not Obligated Case (ENOC) has the least number of tracts with significant air quality improvements.

2. Methodology

   • Modeling Approach:
     • WRF-Chem v4.3: A state-of-science air quality model simulating PM2.5 concentrations at a 36km2 grid resolution.
     • Statistical Model: Utilizes 36km2 simulation results to predict PM2.5 concentrations at a 4km2 grid resolution.
   • Tract-Level Analysis: PM2.5 concentrations translated from grid data using spatial mapping and interpolation methods.
   • Emission Scenarios: Four policy cases analyzed to compare air quality outcomes.

3. Results

   • Economic Emissions:

     • ENOC leads to economy-wide emissions reductions but increases in the power sector due to load growth.
     • FTC and RTC lead to emissions reductions in all modeled sectors.
     • RTC provides the most significant air quality improvements due to sector-specific and facility-specific caps.

   • Air Quality Maps:

     • BAU to RTC: Greatest improvements in New York City and other urban centers.
     • ENOC: Smallest improvements, with some tracts experiencing minor air quality deterioration.

Conclusion

The cap-and-trade program, particularly the Restricted Trading Case (RTC), significantly improves air quality, especially in disadvantaged communities and urban areas. These findings underscore the importance of including sector-specific and facility-specific caps to achieve the desired air quality outcomes.

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This summary highlights the key policy designs, their impacts on air quality, and the methodologies used in the analysis.