2024年全球能源和气候模型2024

GlobalEnergyandClimateModel Documentation-2024 INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum ofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementandmuchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits 31membercountries, 13associationcountriesandbeyond. Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Source:IEA. InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.org IEAmembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanada CzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugal SlovakRepublicSpain SwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA IEAassociationcountries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingapore SouthAfricaThailandUkraine TableofContents IEA.CCBY4.0. Section1:Overviewofmodelandscenarios5 1.1GECModelscenarios6 1.2Selecteddevelopmentsin20249 1.3GECModeloverview12 Section2:Cross-cuttinginputsandassumptions17 2.1Populationassumptions17 2.2Macroeconomicassumptions18 2.3Prices19 2.4Policies22 2.5Techno-economicinputs23 Section3:End-usesectors25 3.1Industry25 3.2Transport31 3.3Buildings41 3.4Hourlyelectricitydemandanddemand-sideresponse44 Section4:Electricitygenerationandheatproduction49 4.1Electricitygeneration49 4.2Value-adjustedLevelisedCostofElectricity54 4.3Electricitytransmissionanddistributionnetworks57 4.4Hourlymodels61 4.5Mini-andoff-gridpowersystems63 4.6Renewablesandcombinedheatandpowermodules63 4.7Hydrogenandammoniainelectricitygeneration65 4.8Batterystorage65 Section5:Otherenergytransformation67 5.1Oilrefiningandtrade67 5.2Coal-to-liquids,Gas-to-liquids,Coal-to-gas68 5.3Hydrogenproductionandsupply68 5.4Biofuelproduction71 Section6:Energysupply75 6.1Oil75 6.2Naturalgas79 6.3Coal80 6.4Bioenergy81 TableofContents1 IEA.CCBY4.0. Section7:Criticalminerals85 7.1Demand86 7.2Primaryandsecondarysupplyprojections86 Section8:Emissions89 8.1CO2emissions89 8.2Methaneemissions89 8.3Othernon-CO2greenhousegasemissions90 8.4Airpollution90 8.5Globaltemperatureimpacts90 Section9:EnergyandCO2decomposition91 Section10:Investment93 10.1Investmentinfuelsupplyandthepowersector93 10.2Demand-sideinvestments95 10.3Financingforinvestments96 Section11:Energyaccess99 11.1Definitionofmodernenergyaccess99 11.2Outlookformodernenergyaccess100 Section12:Employment101 12.1Definitionandscopeofemployment101 12.2Estimatingcurrentemployment103 12.3Outlookforemployment104 Section13:Governmentspendingoncleanenergyandenergyaffordability105 13.1Policyidentificationandcollection105 13.2Assessingtheimpactonoverallcleanenergyinvestment107 Section14:Householdenergyexpendituresanalysis109 14.1Definitionsandcoverage109 14.2Inputdata109 14.3Methodology110 14.4Results111 AnnexA:Terminology113 Definitions113 Regionalandcountrygroupings121 Acronyms124 AnnexB:References129 2InternationalEnergyAgency|GlobalEnergyandClimateModelDocumentation IEA.CCBY4.0. Listoffigures Figure1.1⊳GlobalEnergyandClimateModeloverview13 Figure2.1⊳Componentsofretailelectricityend-useprices21 Figure3.1⊳Generalstructureofdemandmodules25 Figure3.2⊳Majorcategoriesoftechnologiesbyend-usesub-sectorinindustry26 Figure3.3⊳Industrysectormodelinternalmodulestructureandkeydataflows27 Figure3.4⊳Structureofthetransportdemandmodule32 Figure3.5⊳Illustrationofscrappagecurveandmileagedecaybyvehicletype34 Figure3.6⊳Theroleofpassenger-light-dutyvehiclecostmodel35 Figure3.7⊳Illustrationofanefficiencycostcurveforroadfreight36 Figure3.8⊳Refuellinginfrastructurecostcurve(illustrative)37 Figure3.9⊳Shippingmodelmethodology39 Figure3.10⊳Structureofthebuildingsdemandmodule41 Figure3.11⊳Majorcategoriesoftechnologiesbyend-usesub-sectorinbuildings43 Figure3.12⊳Thermosensitivityanalysisforhourlyloadcurveassessment45 Figure3.13⊳IllustrativeloadcurvesbysectorforaweekdayinFebruaryintheEuropeanUnioncomparedtotheobservedloadcurvebyENTSO-Efor201446 Figure4.1⊳Structureofthepowergenerationmodule49 Figure4.2⊳Load-durationcurveshowingthefourdemandsegments51 Figure4.3⊳Examplemeritorderanditsintersectionwithdemandinthepowergenerationmodule52 Figure4.4⊳Exampleelectricitydemandandresidualload53 Figure4.5⊳Exampleofelectricitydemandandresidualload54 Figure4.6⊳MovingbeyondtheLevelisedCostofElectricitytothevalue-adjustedLevelisedCostofElectricity55 Figure4.7⊳ElectricitynetworkexpansionperunitofelectricitydemandgrowthbyGDPpercapita58 Figure5.1⊳Schematicofrefiningandinternationaltrademodule67 Figure5.2⊳Schematicofmerchanthydrogensupplymodule69 Figure5.3⊳Schematicofliquidbiofuelsmodel72 Figure6.1⊳Structureoftheoilsupplymodule77 Figure6.2⊳Evolutionofproductionofcurrentlyproducingconventionaloilfieldsfromafield-by-fielddatabasean