2024电池对实现气候和能源目标至关重要（英）

BatteriesandSecureEnergyTransitions WorldEnergyOutlookSpecialReport INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum ofenergyissuesincludingoil,gasandcoalsupplyanddemand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,accesstoenergy,demandsidemanagementand muchmore.Throughitswork,theIEAadvocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethereliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits 31membercountries, 13associationcountriesandbeyond. Thispublicationandanymapincludedhereinarewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. Source:IEA. InternationalEnergyAgencyWebsite:www.iea.org IEAmembercountries: AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanada CzechRepublicDenmarkEstonia FinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLithuania LuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNewZealandNorwayPolandPortugal SlovakRepublicSpain SwedenSwitzerlandRepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdomUnitedStates TheEuropeanCommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA IEAassociationcountries: ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouthAfricaThailandUkraine IEA.CCBY4.0. Foreword AttheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),wemonitorandanalysetheprogressofmorethan500energytechnologiesonadailybasis,providingvaluableinsightsintothetrajectoryoftheglobalenergysector.Thisprocesssupportsthedevelopmentofenergypoliciesandfostersdialogueatthehighestlevelsofpolicymaking. Inthisnewreport,weprovideanin-depthexaminationofatechnologythatisalinchpinindeliveringcleanenergytransitionsandprotectingenergysecurity.Batterieswillbecriticaltoachievingtheenergygoalsagreedbynearly200countriesattheCOP28climatechangeconferenceinDubai,notablytriplingrenewableenergycapacityby2030,doublingthepaceofenergyefficiencyimprovementsandtransitioningawayfromfossilfuels. Togetherwithrenewablesandothercleanenergysolutions,batteriescanensurereliableandabundantsupplyofelectricitytohouseholdsandbusinessesthroughouttheworld.Batteriesarealreadythebeatingheartofourtechnology-ledsocietiesandessentialtothedevices,suchasphonesandcomputers,thatareembeddedinmodernlife.Now,ascleanenergytransitionspickuppace,theroleofbatteriesisexpandingsignificantly,andsotooisourrelianceonthem.Manufacturersareproducingbatteriesforanever-growingrangeofconsumerandindustrialproductsasdemandexpandsrapidly,fromthedrivetrainsinelectricvehiclestoutility-scalepowerstorageinourelectricitysystems. Goingforward,Iseebatterieshavingaprofoundimpactontwosectorswhicharekeypillarsoftheglobalenergytransition–namelytransportandpower.Improvementsinbatterytechnologycombinedwithrapidlyfallingcosts,meanthatelectricvehiclesinmanypartsoftheworldareincreasinglycompetitiveonpricewithconventionalcars.Inthepowersector,newbatterycapacitygloballyhasdoubledyear-on-year,with2023settinganewrecordforinstallations.Batterycostshavedeclinedby90%inlessthan15years.Andtoday,utility-scalebatteriespairedwithsolarPVarealreadycompetitivewithnewcoalinsomecountrieslikeIndiaand,inthenextfewyears,willbewithnewnaturalgasintheUnitedStatesandnewcoalinChina. Reducingemissionsandgettingontracktomeetinternationalenergyandclimatetargetswillhingeonwhethertheworldcanscaleupbatteriesfastenough.Morethanhalfthejobthatweneedtodowillrely,atleastinsomepart,onbatterydeployment.Ouranalysisshowsthatenergystoragemorebroadlywillneedtoincreasesixfoldby2030tohelpmeetthegoalssetatCOP28,atargetthatwillbemetalmostexclusivelybybatteries. Yet,obstaclestoprogressremain.Costsmustcontinuetocomedowntodrivefurtheruptakeacrossawiderangeofsectors.Batterymanufacturingcapacityhasmorethantripledinthelastthreeyears,butitremainstooconcentratedinonlyafewcountries,asdoestheextractionandprocessingofthecriticalmineralsonwhichitrelies.However,thegoodnewsisthatnewchemistriesforbatterieswillhelpreduceover-relianceononlyahandfulofkeyingredients,andimprovingtherecyclingofrawmaterialswillintimelimittheneedfornewcriticalmineralssupplies. Foreword3 IEA.CCBY4.0. Governmentshaveanimportantparttoplayinbuildingoutresilientlocalandinternationalsupplychainstoensurethatsecurelyandsustainablyproducedbatteriescometomarketatareasonablecost.LegislationsuchastheInflationReductionActintheUnitedStates,theNetZeroIndustryActintheEuropeanUnionandtheProductionLinkedIncentiveinIndiaaregoodexamplesofhowpolicycanaffectrealchangeinindustrybybackingtechnologymanufacturing.Butsupportivepoliciesarealsoneededtohelpspeedupdeploymentbyminimisingbarrierstomarketentryfordevelopersandreducingredtapethatcanoftenstiflenewprojects. IwouldliketothanktheIEAcolleagueswhoworkedonthisspecialreportonBatteriesandSecureEnergyTransitionsfortheirexcellentandinsightfulanalysis–undertheleadershipofLauraCozzi,DirectorofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks,andleadauthorsBrentWannerandApostolosPetropoulos.Thereportisthefirstevercomprehensiveassessmentofthestateofplayacrosstheentirebatteryecosystem.Itdetailswhatneedstobedonetofullyleveragethistechnologytoaddresstheworld’senergyandclimatechallenge.Ifelectricityisthefuture,batterieswillchargeust