2024年三季度医疗技术公共报表和估值指南（英）2024

Key Takeaways

Revenue and Bottom-Line Growth

• Top-Line and Bottom-Line Divergence: Analysts expect a return to more normal conditions in the medtech sector in 2025 after a period of cost-cutting, divestments, and strategic shifts. Nominal revenue growth is anticipated to be in the mid-single digits across most medtech segments, with notable exceptions like high-growth diagnostics companies such as Natera and Exact Sciences.
• Bottom-Line Optimism: Analysts are bullish on the prospects for bottom-line growth, forecasting YoY EBITDA growth of 16% for medical devices and 13% for diagnostics. Additionally, strong free cash flow (FCF) generation is expected, with double-digit FCF growth anticipated for a majority of public medtech firms.

IPO Performance

• Tempus AI Surge: Tempus AI, a precision medicine company, had a notable IPO in June 2024, going public at a valuation of $6.1 billion. Shares have risen over 25% since listing, and the firm now trades at a valuation near $8 billion. This performance contrasts sharply with other startups that went public during the pandemic boom, particularly those using the deSPAC process. Tempus' strong post-IPO performance signals potential shifts in investor sentiment towards new public offerings.

Valuation Trends

• Stabilization of Valuations: Overall, enterprise value (EV)/revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples have stabilized in the medtech sector. However, the consumer health segment has seen a slight but notable rise in valuation multiples, aligning with increased VC deal activity in digital health.
• Sector-Specific Valuation Dynamics: The valuations of major diabetes companies like Dexcom and Insulet have diverged. While Insulet's stock has rebounded significantly, Dexcom reported disappointing Q2 results, leading to a sharp decline in its valuation.

Summary

In the second quarter of 2024, the medtech sector is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of normalized growth in both top-line and bottom-line metrics. Despite some uncertainty in M&A and IPO activities, analysts predict nominal revenue growth in the mid-single digits for most medtech segments, with strong bottom-line growth anticipated. Notably, Tempus AI's successful IPO signals a potential shift in investor sentiment towards new public offerings. Additionally, valuations in the sector have stabilized, with some segments showing slight increases, particularly in consumer health, reflecting broader trends in digital health investment.