Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report

World Bank Group Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 2024 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet:www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of TheWorld Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies inthe information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other informationshown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo.Under the Creative Commons Attribution license,you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes,under the following citation: World Bank Group. 2024.Mongolia Country Climate and Development Report.Ulaanbaatar: WorldBank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World BankPublications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Photographs are copyright of World Bank. All rights reserved. The cutoff date for the data used in the report was May 2024. EAST ASIAPACIFIC MONGOLIA COUNTRYCLIMATE ANDDEVELOPMENTREPORT CONTENTS Climate andDevelopment inKey Sectors Climate Risks toDevelopment ManagingDisaster Riskand BuildingResilience Policies,Institutions,and RegulatoryFramework Financing theTransition Summaryof PolicyRecommendations FIGURESFIGURE 1.CCDR AT A GLANCE...........................................................................................................................4FIGURE 2.MONGOLIA’S GROWTH MODEL HAS SUPPORTED ECONOMIC CONVERGENCE............................................7FIGURE 3.MONGOLIA’S DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES HAVE IMPROVED ALONG WITH STRONG GROWTH.......................7FIGURE 4.BUT THE MINING SECTOR’S CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLYOVER THE PAST TWO DECADES...........................................................................................................7FIGURE 5.…RESULTING IN ECONOMIC GROWTH RATES MORE VOLATILE THAN ASEAN-5 COUNTRIES(GDP GROWTH RATE %, 2010–2023)....................................................................................................7FIGURE 6.TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS IN MONGOLIA..............................................................10FIGURE 7.LIVESTOCK LOSSES (AS PERCENT OF TOTAL) ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WINTERSBECOME MORE INTENSE..................................................................................................................12FIGURE 8IMPACTS OF THE PLAUSIBLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO ON ECONOMIC INDICATORS (% FROM BASELINE)..13FIGURE 9SOME PLACES WITH THE HIGHEST EXPOSURE TO CLIMATE HAZARDS ARE ALSO AMONG THE POOREST..14FIGURE 10MONGOLIA’S CARBON-INTENSIVE ECONOMY.......................................................................................17FIGURE 11.IMPACTS ON GDP AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE MITIGATION SCENARIO (% FROM BASELINE)......................18FIGURE 12.EMISSION INTENSITIES OF BEEF IN MONGOLIA RELATIVE TO OTHER COUNTRIES (2021)........................22FIGURE 13.MONGOLIA’S TOTAL AND NET GHG EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS, 1990 TO 2020.....................................23FIGURE 14.LAND USE TRANSITIONS IN MILLION HA FROM CURRENT LAND USE TO LAND USE ONTHE EFFICIENCY FRONTIER...............................................................................................................24FIGURE 15.SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MINING SECTOR IN MONGOLIA AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON CHINA’S DEMAND........37FIGURE 16.HOW FUTURE COAL DEMAND COULD IMPACT THE ECONOMY...............................................................39FIGURE 17.POSSIBLE GLOBAL GROWTH IN TRANSITION MINERALS, 2022 = 100....................................................40FIGURE 18.GDP AND EMPLOYMENT IMPACTS FROM CHANGES IN COAL AND COPPER PRODUCTION (%)...................41FIGURE 19.ANNUAL HEATING DEMAND, TWH..................................................................................