深度报告：盘活存量土地，业务增长可期助力公司减亏

投资要点      请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 一、盘活存量土地，转型供应链与综合资产运营4 1.华能集团控股公司，踔厉奋发三十载4 2.借力国企改革东风，转型供应链与综合资产运营5 3.归母净利润同比减亏，资产负债率相对稳健6 二、政策扶持不断强化，产业园业务有望深度受益8 1.产业园政策支持持续增强，业务场景逐渐增加8 2.多元发展加深产业链厚度，产业园业务和招商出租率有望提升11 三、电缆行业规模增长迅速，公司电缆业务有望受益13 1.多场景应用带动电缆需求，电缆行业规模增长迅速13 2.电缆业务营收稳定，毛利率显著改善17 四、盈利预测18 五、风险提示20 ...............................................................................................................................................4 ........................................................................................................................................5 ...................................................................................................................................................6 ..................................................................................................................................6 ..............................................................................................................................6 ....................................................................................................................................7 ...................................................................................................................................................7 .........................................................................................................................7 ........................................................................................................................................................13 ............................................................................................................................13 ................................................................14 .......................................................................................................14 .......................................................................................................................15 .....................................................................................................................15 .....................................................................................................................16 ...................................................................16 ......................................................................................17 ...................................................................................................................17 ....................................................................................................................................8 ...................................................................................................................................................9 .................................................................................................................................................11 ..................................................................................................................................11 ............................................................................................................................12 ................................................................................................................................12 ..................................................................................................18 ...........................................................................................19 ....................................................................................................................................................21    6 100% 4.86 5 50.75% 50% 4 2.79 3 1.15%0% 2 -42.59% -42.55% 1 -54.71% -50% 0 -100% -1 -0.35 -0.94-133.69% -0.66 -2-1.34-150% 201920202021202220232024H1 归母净利润 同比增速  45 40 0.44 0.47 0.58 35 30 1.00 7.20 11.06 25 29.06 27.47 20 16.77 17.35 15 0.62 0.26 1.20 10 0.48 0.18 0.51 0.68 0.720.03 5 10.36 9.14 11.51 10.84 2.59 10.03 0.31 4.32 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024H1 电缆租赁及物业服务房屋销售、租赁供应链业务其他业务 8% 6.8% 7% 6% 5% 4.5% 3.7% 4% 1.9% 4.0% 3.4% 2.3% 3%2.1% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.9% 2% 1.1% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024H1 销售费用率 管理费用率 财务费用率 研发费用率 28.1% 30% 25% 21.7% 20% 13.7% 15% 8.4% 10% 7.4% 4.8% 5% 2.2% -2.1% 1.2% 0% -3.4% -4.1% -5% -7.6% -10% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024H1 销售毛利率 销售净利率 90% 86.6% 84.7% 85% 81.8% 80.5% 80% 75.4% 76.6% 76.2% 76.9% 76.1% 75% 72.3% 68.3% 68.2% 70% 67.7% 67.9% 65.6% 68.7% 67.3% 63.2% 65% 60% 55% 52.5% 49.5% 51.1% 52.1% 50% 43.8% 45.6% 45% 40% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024H1 新能泰山 招商蛇口 新城控股 金地集团     3% 8% 13% 39% 15% 22% 电力电缆电气装备电缆裸电线(导线)绕组线通信电缆附件 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.17 1.2 1.08 1.12 0.99 1.03 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2027E    1200011225 10292 100009193 8543 79788013 80007254 6730 03 5761 6000 5033 5187 4153 4354 400031733169 3618 3884 2539 20642074 2361 2658 20001401 17131726 0