平衡法国交通脱碳的环境、财政和福利影响

Executive Summary

France is a leader in global mitigation initiatives, aiming to reduce emissions by 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. To achieve these targets, accelerating emissions reductions in the road transportation sector is critical. This sector accounts for approximately one-third of total emissions, and historically, emissions reductions here have lagged behind other sectors.

Despite a robust existing policy framework, emissions from road transportation are expected to exceed the sector's target. As driving transitions to relatively lightly taxed electric vehicles (EVs), fiscal revenues from the sector are projected to decline from 1.4 percent to 0.9 percent of GDP. Additionally, driving-related externalities, such as congestion, are anticipated to worsen.

To address these challenges, a comprehensive reform combining revenue-neutral continuous feebate schemes with a gradual introduction of road user and congestion charges is proposed. Such reforms could support mitigation targets while maintaining revenue and regulating externalities.

Key Findings

1. Transportation Emissions and Targets:

   • Transportation is the largest source of emissions, accounting for about one-third of total emissions.
   • France aims to reduce emissions by 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and achieve net zero by 2050.

2. Current Challenges:

   • Emissions from road transportation are projected to exceed sectoral targets.
   • Fiscal revenues from the sector are expected to fall from 1.4 percent to 0.9 percent of GDP.
   • Economic costs of driving-related externalities, such as congestion, are projected to worsen.

3. Proposed Reforms:

   • A combination of revenue-neutral continuous feebate schemes and gradual introduction of road user and congestion charges.
   • These measures aim to support emission reduction targets while maintaining revenue and regulating externalities.

4. Quantitative Assessment:

   • Policy reforms could significantly impact emissions, revenues, and welfare.
   • Key metrics include:
     • Reduced emissions and increased EV sales.
     • Revenue impacts in 2030.
     • Distributional impacts of existing road transportation fuel taxes.
     • Welfare effects of evaluated policies.

5. Conclusion:

   • Comprehensive reforms are necessary to balance environmental, fiscal, and welfare impacts of transportation decarbonization in France.
   • Revenue-neutral continuous feebate schemes and gradual introduction of road user and congestion charges are viable solutions to support mitigation targets while maintaining revenue and regulating externalities.