Understanding Türkiye’s Entanglement With Russia

Understanding Türkiye’s Entanglement With Russia

Summary

During the Cold War, Türkiye was a steadfast ally of the West, particularly NATO, and its foreign policy trajectory was largely aligned with its Western partners. However, in the past decade, Türkiye's deepening entanglement with Russia and its strained relations with the United States and some European allies have complicated its image as a staunch member of the Western security architecture. Despite these challenges, Türkiye's ability to maintain a constructive dialogue with Russia, including its role in the 2022 grain deal and the release of Western hostages, has been beneficial in certain contexts. Nevertheless, Türkiye's recent hedging has raised concerns about its commitment to NATO, particularly given its purchase of the Russian S-400 air and missile defense system and its aspirations to join the BRICS grouping.

Five Hundred Years of Geopolitical Jockeying

Bilateral relations between Russia and Türkiye have evolved significantly over the past decade, driven by the strong leadership of Presidents Putin and Erdoğan. Despite occasional misalignments, such as in Libya and Syria, the mutual high-level ownership of the relationship has helped mitigate these issues. Historically, Russia and Türkiye have had a complex relationship marked by periods of peace and war, with Russia's southward expansion often at the expense of the Ottoman Empire. Today, the triangular interplay between Russia, Türkiye, and the West is evident, with both countries seeking new opportunities to cooperate despite their strained relations with the West.

Managed Rivalry Amid Converging Interests

A defining element in contemporary Russian-Turkish relations has been the managed rivalry amid converging interests. Russia's actions, such as its invasion of Ukraine, have made deepening cooperation with the country more challenging. However, Türkiye continues to pursue economic, energy, and security interests through increased engagement with Russia. This is particularly true in the energy sector, where Türkiye has expanded its energy cooperation with Russia into the nuclear domain. Despite these economic benefits, Türkiye's actions raise questions about its commitment to NATO and its broader security architecture.

Asymmetrical Leverage

Türkiye's relationship with Russia is characterized by asymmetrical leverage. Russia's actions, such as its invasion of Ukraine, have created a situation where Türkiye must balance its economic interests with its strategic alliances. On the other hand, Türkiye's strategic location and historical ties provide it with leverage in negotiations with Russia. This asymmetry has led to a complex and nuanced relationship where both countries seek to maximize their respective advantages.

Going Forward

The paper suggests that the relationship between Russia and Türkiye is likely to remain complex and multifaceted. While both countries continue to pursue their individual interests, they also recognize the need for cooperation in certain areas. Moving forward, the key challenge will be to incentivize Türkiye's closer alignment with its NATO allies while also meeting Ankara's interests. This will require a nuanced approach that balances economic benefits with strategic considerations.

Conclusion

Türkiye's entanglement with Russia is a symptom of a larger shift in Turkish foreign policy under the current government, which has become less Western-centric. While the relationship has its benefits, it also raises questions about Türkiye's commitment to the Western security architecture. Understanding and navigating this complex relationship will be crucial for ensuring Euro-Atlantic security in the long term.