Oil Market Report - October 2024
AI智能总结Refining Margin Documentation
Introduction The International Energy Agency (IEA) has been publishing refinery margins since June 1992 in its monthly Oil Market Report. In 2022, the IEA refined its methodology (Methodology 2022) to provide an indicative site average margin based on three criteria:
- Geography: Mediterranean, North West Europe, Singapore, the US Gulf Coast, and the US Midcontinent.
- Crude Processed: Selection based on typical regional crude slate, accessibility, API and sulfur composition.
- Refinery Complexity Profile: Hydroskimming, catalytic cracking, coking, and petrochemicals integration.
In August 2024, the IEA introduced updates to the methodology:
- Added utility costs (natural gas, refinery fuel gas, LPG, fuel oil, electricity, petroleum coke, imported steam).
- Implemented a new yield structure based on empirical data.
- Adjusted some prices.
Refining Hubs The IEA continues to assess refinery margins for five regions:
- Northwest Europe
- Mediterranean Europe
- US Gulf Coast
- US Midcontinent
- Singapore
Refinery Configuration and Product Yields Two to three types of refinery configurations are selected per region based on existing capacity characteristics:
- Hydroskimming and Cracking/Hydrocracking: Common in Mediterranean and US regions.
- Coking: Rare in Northwest Europe and US.
- Petrochemical Component: Present in most regions.
Yields are updated annually and adjusted based on available data:
- USGC and USMC: Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
- Northwest Europe and Mediterranean: Data from IEA's Monthly Oil Statistics, adjusted for crude grades.
- Singapore: Average yield statistics from Asian countries with reliable datasets.
Crude Grades Refinery margin calculations are now based on types of crude rather than specific grades:
- Light Sweet: North Sea Dated, WTI, WTI Singapore.
- Medium Sour: Argus Brent Sour, Basrah Medium, Mars, WTI.
- Heavy Sour: WTI Singapore, Dubai, Basrah Heavy.
Petrochemical Margins A simplified petrochemical margin component is introduced for Northwest Europe and Singapore:
- Assumes naphtha produced in the refinery is used as feedstock in an integrated cracker.
- Accounts for by-product hydrogen as "free" supply, reducing natural gas purchases.
Emission Costs Carbon dioxide emissions from hydrogen production and refinery energy consumption are aggregated to calculate refinery emission allowance costs:
- Historical calculations use data from the European Environment Agency (EEA).
- Updated for 2022 based on 2021 emissions intensity and forecasted throughput.
Summary
The IEA's refined methodology for calculating refinery margins in August 2024 includes updated utility costs, new yield structures, and petrochemical margins. The methodology focuses on five key refining hubs and uses a mix of empirical data and adjusted prices. Emission costs are also factored in, providing a more realistic picture of refinery economics.
