降低排放强度的有效燃料价格：巴西的面板分析（英）

Effective Fuel Price in Reducing Emission Intensity: A Panel Analysis for Brazil

Abstract

This paper investigates the effectiveness of an incremental change in fuel prices (specifically diesel) in reducing the emission intensity of road transportation in Brazil using panel analysis. The study covers the period from 2010 to 2020 at the federative unit (FU) level. Key findings include:

1. Diesel Price Impact: Diesel prices have the most significant and robust impact on reducing emission intensity.
2. Elasticity: The short-run and long-run elasticities of diesel prices are -0.74 and -2.06, respectively.
3. Significant Effects: Both entity and time effects are significant, with the year 2020 consistently showing a positive effect in reducing emission intensity.

Introduction

Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Brazil. The country's clean electricity matrix reduces emission intensity in the electric power sector, but the transportation sector remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Biofuels, particularly ethanol and biodiesel, play a crucial role in reducing emissions due to their lower emission factors. However, the emission reduction measures, such as a carbon tax, are necessary to address climate inequality and bridge the income gap between regions.

Key Findings

1. Diesel Price Effectiveness:
   • Impact: Diesel prices have the most significant impact on reducing emission intensity.
   • Elasticities: The short-run elasticity of diesel prices is -0.74, and the long-run elasticity is -2.06.
   • Consistency: Both entity and time effects are significant, with the year 2020 consistently showing a positive effect.

Stylized Facts of Brazil’s Fuel Markets

• Products and Prices:
  • Diesel Oil B: A mixture of diesel oil A and biodiesel (10-13% biodiesel).
  • Gasoline C: A mixture of gasoline A and anhydrous ethanol (25-27% ethanol).
  • Ethanol: Initially used in anhydrous form, later in hydrous form.
  • Biodiesel: Introduced in the mid-2000s and increasingly mixed with diesel.
  • CNG: Available since the 1990s but in limited quantities.

Figures and Maps

• Figure 1: Regions with higher income emit more GHG emissions.
• Map 1: Regions with lower income pay higher fuel prices.

Conclusion

The study provides empirical evidence that a marginal increase in fuel prices, especially diesel prices, can effectively reduce emission intensity in both the short and long run. The persistence of emission intensity and the significant effects of entity and time suggest that carbon tax policies can be effective in reducing emission intensity in Brazil.

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This summary captures the main findings and key data points from the research, providing a clear and concise overview of the study's objectives and results.