质疑气候变化的年龄差距（英）

Questioning the Climate Change Age Gap

Abstract

This Policy Research Working Paper explores the widely held belief that younger people are more concerned about climate change and more willing to support climate policies than older generations. The paper presents a theoretical model and empirical analysis based on data from 38 countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East from the 2023 Life in Transition Survey. The findings reveal a positive relationship between age and concerns about climate change, with older respondents being equally or even more concerned than younger ones. However, older individuals are more likely to object to tax increases for climate policies, suggesting a general decline in willingness to pay taxes with age rather than a specific lack of support for climate change policies.

Introduction

In December 2023, 199 countries committed to addressing the global climate emergency. The effectiveness of these efforts hinges on individual countries' willingness to act on their national climate goals (NDCs). Factors influencing cross-country variations in climate actions include the "climate change age gap," which suggests that younger people are more concerned about climate change than older people. This perception is reinforced by young climate activists and the demographic structure of populations. Older generations, due to their greater participation in the electoral process, exert significant influence on public policy, including climate change policies.

Theoretical Model and Empirical Analysis

The paper develops a theoretical model to explain the relationship between age and concerns about climate change. The empirical analysis uses data from 38 countries, collected in 2022-2023 through the Life in Transition Survey (LITS). The findings show no evidence of an "age gap" in perceptions of climate change. Older respondents appear to be as concerned or even more concerned than younger respondents. However, older individuals are more likely to object to tax increases for climate adaptation and mitigation policies, reflecting a general decline in willingness to pay taxes with age rather than a specific lack of willingness to finance climate change policies.

Factors Influencing Perceptions and Willingness to Pay

Several factors influence perceptions and willingness to pay for climate change, including past exposure to natural disasters, physical and psychological health, risk aversion, sources of information, trust in institutions, and planned relocation. None of these factors reverse the positive age gradient estimated by the most parsimonious models.

Contributions to the Literature

The paper contributes to the literature by:

1. Developing a theoretical model showing that the relationship between age and concerns about climate change and willingness to pay for climate change actions is ambiguous and depends on various factors.
2. Distinguishing between climate-related beliefs and actions towards climate change mitigation.
3. Accounting for a wide range of determinants of climate beliefs, including ideology, attitudes toward risk and fairness, trust in government, primary sources of information, and health conditions that can exacerbate climate morbidity.

Data and Methodology

• Data: Data from 38 countries in Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, collected in 2022-2023 through the Life in Transition Survey (LITS).
• Methodology: The paper uses a theoretical model to guide empirical analysis, focusing on the relationship between age and concerns about climate change.

Robustness Tests

The paper includes robustness tests to ensure the reliability of the findings. The positive age gradient remains robust across various specifications, definitions of the dependent variable, and corrections for potential omitted variable biases.

Conclusion

The findings suggest that older respondents are as concerned about climate change as younger respondents, but are more likely to object to tax increases for climate policies. This reflects a general decline in willingness to pay taxes with age rather than a specific lack of willingness to finance climate change policies. The paper contributes to understanding the complex relationship between age and climate change perceptions and actions.