更多知情的公民会做出更好的气候政策决策吗？（英）

Do More Informed Citizens Make Better Climate Policy Decisions?

Summary

This study explores the relationship between perceptions of past catastrophic events and beliefs about climate change. Using data from the 2023 Life in Transition Survey (LiTS), the research finds that higher accuracy in knowledge about past catastrophes is associated with lower concern about climate change. The findings challenge the assumption that a more informed populace inevitably leads to better climate policy decisions.

Key Findings

1. Overestimation of Disaster Impacts:

   • Respondents significantly underestimated the fatalities in the 1984 Bhopal chemical leak accident (70%) and the 2010 Haiti earthquake (61%).
   • Respondents grossly overestimated the number of deaths from both the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accident. Over 75% thought the number of deaths from Chernobyl exceeded 10,000, with nearly 17% believing it caused a million or more deaths. Actual estimates range from 50 to 4,000 deaths.
   • Similarly, 92% of respondents thought the Fukushima accident resulted in far more fatalities than the actual zero radiation-related deaths.

2. Impact on Climate Change Beliefs:

   • Individuals with less accurate perceptions of catastrophe-related deaths tend to hold more accurate beliefs about the societal risks of climate change.
   • People with more accurate beliefs about fatalities from catastrophes tend not to take climate change as seriously as scientists believe they should.

3. Policy Implications:

   • The study suggests that psychological factors, such as anxiety and risk perception, play crucial roles in shaping climate attitudes.
   • An inflated sense of risk from catastrophes may be more effective at instilling the urgency needed to address critical global challenges.

4. Methodology:

   • The research uses an instrumental variable (IV) approach to mitigate systematic non-response bias.
   • Sensitivity analysis confirms the stability of results across various model specifications and aggregation methods.

Context

• Background Events:
  • The 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident, rated level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale, led to significant changes in energy policies globally.
  • Other notable events include the 1984 Bhopal chemical plant accident, the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident, and the 2010 Haiti earthquake.

Conclusion

A more nuanced understanding of the relationship between knowledge, risk perception, and policy preferences is necessary to effectively address complex societal challenges like climate change. The findings suggest that while greater knowledge does not always lead to better policy decisions, psychological factors can play a significant role in shaping public attitudes towards climate change.