失业发展（英）

Jobless Development

Introduction

Changes in GDP per capita are commonly used to measure a country's overall development. Since GDP per capita is the product of GDP per worker and the employment-to-population ratio, changes in GDP per capita reflect changes in both productivity and the employment-to-population ratio. We introduce the term "jobless development" to describe countries experiencing a decrease in their employment-to-population ratio during a period of productivity growth.

Background and Motivation

While much research has focused on productivity growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the dynamics of the employment-to-population ratio have received little attention. To address this gap, this paper examines employment-to-population ratio dynamics among EMDEs in the post-1990 period. The examples of South Korea and India illustrate this concept: both countries experienced rapid growth in GDP per capita, but with contrasting trends in the employment-to-population ratio. South Korea saw a significant increase, while India experienced a large decrease.

Key Findings

1. Differences in Employment-to-Population Ratio Dynamics: The study finds that EMDEs exhibit large differences in the steady-state levels of the employment-to-population ratio. Some countries experience substantial increases, while others see significant decreases.

2. Negative Correlation Between Productivity Growth and Employment: There is a general tendency for productivity growth to be negatively correlated with changes in the employment-to-population ratio. This phenomenon is termed "jobless development."

3. Gender Differences: The study highlights particularly large differences in steady-state employment ratios for women. Countries with fewer legal protections for women’s rights tend to have lower steady-state employment ratios for women, without a corresponding positive effect for men.

Methodology

The analysis uses a two-stage approach:

1. First Stage: Estimates differences in steady-state employment ratios across countries.
2. Second Stage: Documents which institutional and policy factors are correlated with steady-state employment ratios.

Results

1. Steady-State Employment Ratios: The study finds significant variations in steady-state employment ratios across countries. For example, South Korea's EWAP was 24 log points higher than India's in 1960, but by 2019, India's EWAP was 28 log points lower—a reversal of 52 log points, equivalent to 26 years of growth at a 2% rate.

2. Correlates of Employment: Higher population growth is associated with significantly lower EWAP. Similarly, higher productivity growth is also linked to lower EWAP, suggesting a tradeoff between employment and productivity.

3. Institutional and Policy Factors: Several factors correlate significantly with long-run levels of EWAP, including greater openness to international trade.

Conclusion

The paper underscores the importance of understanding the dynamics of the employment-to-population ratio in EMDEs. It highlights the need for policies that can balance productivity growth with employment opportunities, especially for women.