关键材料：电动汽车电池（英）2024

Critical Materials: Batteries for Electric Vehicles

Figures, Tables, and Boxes

• Figure 1: Critical material supply and demand in 2023 and 2030.
• Figure 2: Sensitivity analysis of supply-demand balance based on average battery size and battery chemistry.
• Figure 3: Volume-weighted average price split for lithium-ion battery packs and cells, 2013-2023 (real USD 2023/kWh).
• Figure 4: Breakdown of total final energy consumption by energy carrier under the 1.5°C Scenario, 2020-2050.
• Figure 5: Estimated battery demand for EVs under IRENA’s 1.5°C Scenario by segment, 2023-2030.
• Figure 6: Battery system components and internal components of a battery cell.
• Figure 7: Estimated average critical material metal content of selected lithium-ion EV battery cathodes.
• Figure 8: Global EV battery cathode chemistry mixes for passenger vehicles, 2015-2023.
• Figure 9: Global EV battery anode chemistry mix, 2015-2023.
• Figure 10: Estimated average critical material composition of selected EV battery packs.
• Figure 11: Evolution of historical battery chemistry market shares for passenger vehicles, 2015-2022, and explorative scenarios, 2023-2030.
• Figure 12: Estimated global share of material demand from EV batteries and other applications, 2022 and 2030.
• Figure 13: Regional lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity in 2023 and planned capacity for 2030.
• Figure 14: Material supply in 2023 and range of estimated supply in 2030.
• Figure 15: Total battery material exploration expenditure, 2010-2023 (real 2023 USD million).
• Figure 16: Critical material supply and demand in 2023 and 2030.
• Figure A1.1: Lithium demand from EV batteries and other applications, 2022 and 2030.
• Figure A1.2: Lithium demand from EV batteries by 2030 based on IRENA’s battery chemistry scenarios.
• Figure A1.3: Lithium supply and demand in 2023 and 2030.
• Figure A1.4: Lithium supply and demand balance in 2030 based on battery size sensitivity analysis.
• Figure A1.5: Cobalt demand from EV batteries and other applications, 2022 and 2030.
• Figure A1.6: Cobalt demand from EV batteries by 2030 based on IRENA’s battery chemistry scenarios.
• Figure A1.7: Cobalt supply and demand in 2023 and 2030.
• Figure A1.8: Cobalt supply and demand balance in 2030 based on battery size sensitivity analysis.

Key Data and Analysis

1. Introduction

   • The report focuses on critical materials essential for electric vehicle (EV) batteries, highlighting their role in the energy transition.
   • It provides an overview of the current and future demand and supply dynamics for these materials.

2. Demand-Supply Prospects for EV Battery Materials

   • Role of Electric Vehicles (EVs): EVs are expected to play a crucial role in the energy transition, driving demand for critical materials.
   • Demand for EV Battery Materials: The report estimates significant increases in demand for materials like lithium, cobalt, graphite, nickel, copper, phosphorus, and manganese over the next decade.
   • Supply of EV Battery Materials: Current supply is limited, with projections showing that supply will struggle to keep up with demand unless new sources and recycling initiatives are implemented.

3. Key Considerations for Policy Makers

   • Results and Conclusions: The report highlights the critical importance of diversifying supply sources, enhancing recycling capabilities, and investing in research and development.
   • Recommendations for Policy Makers: Policymakers are advised to implement measures such as supportive regulatory frameworks, incentives for recycling, and funding for new exploration and extraction projects.

4. Critical Material Supply and Demand

   • Lithium: The report forecasts a significant increase in lithium demand from EV batteries, with both supply and demand projected to grow substantially by 2030.
   • Cobalt: Similar to lithium, cobalt demand is expected to rise sharply, driven