移民到欧盟：最近的发展和宏观经济影响（英）

IMF Working Paper: Migration into the EU

Introduction

Driven primarily by refugees from Ukraine, the European Union (EU) experienced a significant influx of non-EU citizens in 2022, marking the highest level of immigration since harmonized migration data became available. In 2023, although immigration levels eased, they still remained significantly above pre-pandemic averages. The composition and scale of this population shock varied across the EU, with a notable presence of Ukrainian refugees in Central and Eastern Europe and Germany, and a significant contribution from Latin Americans to immigration in Spain.

Recent Migration Developments

• Immigration Levels: In 2022, the EU saw immigration of non-EU citizens at around 1.4% of its population, which is close to 50% above the levels seen in 2015-16.
• Composition and Distribution: The influx was unevenly distributed. In Central and Eastern Europe and Germany, about 4 million Ukrainian refugees played a significant role, while Latin Americans contributed most to increased immigration in Spain.

Macroeconomic Implications

• Population Growth: High levels of immigration allowed the EU's population to grow at its fastest rate in many years, despite a rising old-age dependency ratio.
• Labor Market Impact: Immigration helped address strong labor demand in Europe, with approximately two-thirds of EU jobs created between 2019 and 2023 filled by non-EU citizens. The unemployment rate for EU citizens remained at historic lows, indicating that immigrants alleviated labor shortages.
• Integration and Employment: Ukrainian refugees were absorbed into the labor market faster than previous waves of refugees in many countries, partly due to tight labor market conditions and the EU’s temporary protection scheme allowing for immediate job searches.

Macroeconomic Modeling

• Potential Output: Using a semi-structural general equilibrium model, the paper simulates the impact of recent immigration. It estimates that potential output could increase by 0.2-0.7% in 2030, with a central estimate of 0.5%. This is slightly less than half of the euro area's annual potential GDP growth at that time.
• Assumptions and Uncertainties: The range reflects measurement difficulties related to the size of the working-age population increase, differences in productivity assumptions, and the possibility that only some immigrants settle permanently.

Local Economic and Social Impacts

• Fiscal Costs and Public Services: Large inflows initially incurred fiscal costs and led to congestion in local public services such as schooling.
• Perceptions of Migrants: Local perceptions of migrants vary, influenced by regional and individual characteristics.

Policy Recommendations

• Continued Integration: Policies should focus on integrating migrants into the labor force while ensuring that public service supplies keep pace with population increases.
• Balancing Growth and Equity: Efforts should balance economic growth with social equity to manage the challenges posed by high immigration.

Conclusion

The recent surge in migration into the EU has had significant macroeconomic implications, contributing to population growth and addressing labor demand. However, it also presents challenges in terms of fiscal costs and local service congestion. Policymakers need to ensure sustained integration and adequate provision of public services to fully harness the benefits of immigration while mitigating its potential drawbacks.