未来能源情景2024

Future Energy Scenarios: ESO Pathways to Net Zero

Overview

Decisive action is needed within the next two years to achieve a fair, affordable, sustainable, and secure net zero energy system by 2050. The Electricity System Operator (ESO) aims to operate a net zero carbon electricity system for short durations by next year, setting up the groundwork for a clean power system throughout the 2030s. The evolving energy landscape necessitates strategic planning and a holistic approach to decarbonization.

Evolution of Future Energy Scenarios Framework

• 2011: Three scenarios - Gone Green, Accelerated Growth, and Slow Progression.
• 2013: Retired Accelerated Growth, retained Gone Green and Slow Progression.
• 2015: Four scenarios - Gone Green, Consumer Power, Slow Progression, and No Progression.
• 2018: Four scenarios - Community Renewables, Two Degrees, Consumer Evolution, and Steady Progression.
• 2022: Four scenarios - Two Degrees, Consumer Power, Slow Progression, and Steady State.
• 2020: Four scenarios - Leading the Way, Consumer Transformation, System Transformation, and Steady Progression.
• 2024: Three net zero pathways - Holistic Transition, Electric Engagement, and Hydrogen Evolution, with a Counterfactual that misses the 2050 net zero target.

Key Changes in the New Framework

• Pathways vs. Scenarios: The framework has shifted from scenarios to pathways, focusing on narrower and more strategic routes to net zero.
• Net Zero Pathways:
  • Holistic Transition: A broad approach to decarbonization.
  • Electric Engagement: Emphasizes electrification and renewable energy.
  • Hydrogen Evolution: Focuses on hydrogen as a key fuel.
  • Counterfactual: Represents a scenario that fails to meet the 2050 net zero target.

Modeling and Analysis

• The modeling process begins with an assessment of how demand will change in the future.
• The pathways represent a subset of possible outcomes, highlighting ambitious goals that require decisive action to achieve net zero.

Strategic Planning

• The ESO will transform into the National Energy System Operator (NESO), focusing on customer-centric approaches and strategic planning for gas and electricity networks.
• NESO will provide independent advice to government and Ofgem on energy policy developments, fostering a comprehensive view of future market directions.

Stakeholder Engagement

• Extensive stakeholder engagement and consultation have informed the development of the new framework.
• The pathways aim to support rapid and fundamental change, addressing the challenges posed by ongoing global conflicts and the cost-of-living crisis.

By adopting these pathways, the ESO aims to build a future where everyone has access to clean, reliable, and affordable energy, contributing to a sustainable and secure energy system for Great Britain.