对“通货膨胀——政策制定者和研究人员面临的挑战”小组的贡献

ECB Annual Meeting Summary

Policy Path and Risk-Free Yield Curve

• Policy Rate Path: The policy rate path and risk-free curve are shown for various periods, with the most recent data up to August 27, 2024.
• Slope of the Risk-Free Yield Curve: The slope, calculated as the difference between the 10-year and 2-year OIS rates, was -1.0 percentage points as of August 27, 2024.

Evolution of Eurosystem Balance Sheet

• Balance Sheet Evolution: The Eurosystem balance sheet has grown over the years, reaching approximately 2.5 trillion EUR as of August 27, 2024.

Bank Lending Rates and Funding Costs

• Bank Lending Rates: The total cost of borrowing for firms and households, aggregated using a 24-month moving average, was at around 2.0% as of June 2024.
• Bank Funding Costs: The weighted average of bank funding costs, based on outstanding amounts, was at 1.5% as of June 2024.

Credit Volume and Standards

• Credit Volumes: Credit volumes to firms and households have shown slight growth, with the latest observations indicating increases of 1.5% and 1.0%, respectively, as of the second quarter of 2024.
• Credit Standards: The tightening of credit standards, measured cumulatively, has been relatively stable, with the latest observations showing no significant change as of the second quarter of 2024.

Economic Transmission

• Real GDP and Projections: Real GDP growth was 2.0% in 2023, with projections for 2024 showing a slight decline.
• Consumption and Confidence: Private consumption and disposable income showed growth, with consumer confidence peaking at 105 in August 2024.
• Sectoral Shocks: Contributions to HICP inflation were decomposed into various factors, including negotiated wage growth, energy, and food prices.

Inflation Expectations

• Inflation Expectations: Long-term inflation expectations, based on surveys, were around 2.0% for the next four to five years.
• Professional Forecasters: The term structure of inflation expectations from professional forecasters indicated a gradual increase over the next few years.
• Firms' Expectations: Firms expected inflation to be around 2.0% in one year, 2.5% in three years, and 2.8% in five years.

Labor Market Indicators

• Compensation Per Employee and Hour: These indicators showed steady growth, with the latest observations indicating increases of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, as of the second quarter of 2024.
• Wage Tracker: The wage tracker scenarios showed varying growth rates, with the forward-looking wage tracker including one-off payments indicating a moderate increase.

Conclusion

The ECB's annual meeting highlighted key trends in monetary policy, economic activity, and inflation expectations. The balance sheet continued to grow, reflecting ongoing quantitative easing measures. Bank lending rates and funding costs remained stable, supporting credit growth. Inflation expectations, both among firms and professional forecasters, indicated a moderate outlook, with some sector-specific shocks influencing overall inflation dynamics.