上游石油和天然气投资展望

Upstream Oil and Gas Investment Outlook

Executive Summary

• Annual Upstream Investment: To ensure adequate supplies by 2030, annual upstream investment needs to increase by $135 billion to reach $738 billion. This estimate is 15% higher than last year and 41% higher than two years ago, primarily due to rising costs and a stronger demand outlook.
• Capital Expenditure (Capex): Oil and gas annual upstream capex rose by $63 billion in 2023 and is expected to rise further by $26 billion in 2024, surpassing $600 billion for the first time in a decade. This is more than double the 2020 low of $300 billion and significantly above 2015-2019 levels of approximately $425 billion. North America will contribute more than a third of the spending in 2024, while Latin America is expected to be the largest source of incremental capex growth, surpassing North America for the first time since at least 2004.
• Geographic Breakdown: More than 60% of the increase in upstream capex between now and 2030 will come from the Americas. North America will be the largest driver of capex growth to 2030, while Latin America will continue to play a significant role in non-OPEC supply growth, particularly for conventional crude. Around 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in new or expanded conventional projects have been approved and are expected to be producing in Latin America by 2030, representing more than a third of the total 6 mb/d that have been sanctioned globally.
• Risk Factors: Despite the upward revisions to forecasted investment requirements, the risk of underinvestment and supply shortage has receded. Elevated prices have supported more investment, capital constraints have eased, production has remained resilient in Russia, Iran, and Venezuela despite sanctions, non-OPEC supply has surprised to the upside, and spare production capacity has been restored. However, the risk of underinvestment and undersupply could rise again if there are changes in the commodity price environment, geopolitical landscape, or ESG regulations.

Introduction: An Era of (Relative) Stability or Calm Between Storms?

• Global Oil Liquids Demand: Global oil liquids demand reached a new record in 2023 and is expected to continue setting fresh highs each successive year this decade, albeit at a decelerating pace. Despite the tumultuous geopolitical environment, physical oil production has remained relatively unscathed.

This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the current and projected upstream oil and gas investment landscape, highlighting key trends and risks.