预算和经济展望更新报告：2024年至2034年

An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034

Executive Summary

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly updates its baseline projections to reflect changes in laws and economic conditions. This report covers the period from 2024 to 2034.

Key Data Points

• Budget Deficit:

  • 2024: $1.9 trillion (7.0% of GDP)
  • 2025: $2.0 trillion (6.5% of GDP)
  • 2027: $2.2 trillion (5.5% of GDP)
  • 2034: $2.8 trillion (6.9% of GDP)

• Debt Held by the Public:

  • 2024: 99% of GDP
  • 2034: 122% of GDP

• Outlays:

  • 2024: $6.8 trillion (23.9% of GDP)
  • 2025: $6.9 trillion (24.2% of GDP)
  • 2034: $10.3 trillion (24.9% of GDP)

• Revenues:

  • 2024: $4.9 trillion (17.2% of GDP)
  • 2027: $5.4 trillion (18.0% of GDP)
  • 2034: $7.5 trillion (18.0% of GDP)

Detailed Breakdown

The Budget Outlook

• Deficits:

  • In 2024, the deficit is projected at $1.9 trillion, with an adjusted deficit of $2.0 trillion. By 2034, the adjusted deficit is expected to reach $2.8 trillion.
  • The adjusted deficit reaches 7.0% of GDP in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, dropping to 5.5% in 2027 as revenues grow faster than outlays. However, outlays continue to increase, pushing the adjusted deficit to 6.9% in 2034.

• Debt:

  • Debt held by the public rises from 99% of GDP in 2024 to 122% in 2034, surpassing its previous high of 106% of GDP.

• Outlays and Revenues:

  • Outlays: Total outlays are projected to be $6.8 trillion in 2024, increasing to $10.3 trillion in 2034.
  • Revenues: Revenues are projected to be $4.9 trillion in 2024, rising to $7.5 trillion in 2034.

• Changes in CBO’s Budget Projections:

  • The deficit for 2024 is $0.4 trillion (27%) larger than in February 2024 projections.
  • Cumulative deficits over 2025–2034 are larger by $2.1 trillion (10%).

• Adjustments:

  • Timing shifts in payments can distort budgetary trends. Adjusted projections account for these shifts to provide a clearer picture.

Figures

1. Total Outlays and Revenues: Federal outlays exceed their 50-year average in each year from 2024 to 2034. Revenues remain below their 50-year average in 2024 and 2025 but rise above it thereafter.

2. Outlays, by Category:

   • Mandatory spending, including Social Security and Medicare, increases.
   • Discretionary spending as a share of GDP falls to historic lows.
   • Net interest costs rise significantly, becoming greater than defense spending and nondefense programs starting in 2025.

Conclusion

The report highlights significant increases in both deficits and debt over the next decade, driven by growing mandatory spending and rising interest costs. The adjustments for payment timing shifts are crucial for understanding the true impact on the budget.