美联储眼不见心不烦：附近分行关闭与小企业增长

Out of Sight, Out of Mind: Nearby Branch Closures and Small Business Growth

Introduction

• Background: Since 2010, the number of commercial bank branches in the United States has declined by about 20%.
• Impact: This decline raises questions about the potential economic impact, especially on small businesses, which often rely on local bank relationships for credit access.
• Example: A bakery looking to expand may face reduced credit availability if its local branch closes.

Empirical Analysis

• Data Sources: Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) from the U.S. Census Bureau and Federal Reserve System's National Information Center (NIC) database.
• Instrumental Variable: Quasi-random branch closures induced by mergers and acquisitions (M&A) among large banks.
• Model: Five-year changes in employment at the firm level as a function of the share of branches closing within a certain distance and fixed effects.

Key Findings

• Branch Closures Impact: Closures of bank branches within 5 kilometers significantly affect small business growth.
  • Employment Growth: If every branch within 5 kilometers closed, small firms' employment growth would fall by about 16 percentage points over the next five years.
  • Typical Scenario: When the typical share of nearby branches closes, small firms' employment growth declines by approximately 4 percentage points over five years.
• Entry Rates: Branch closures negatively impact the entry rate of small businesses, with a 1.3 percentage point reduction in the following year, which is about 14% of the average entry rate.

Limitations

• Estimation Scope: The study focuses on large bank branches and does not capture the full impact in areas with "banking deserts" where small banks play a more crucial role.

Literature Review

• Distance and Lending: Prior research emphasizes the importance of distance in lending relationships, with small banks playing a more significant role in small business lending.
• Credit Shocks: Other studies highlight the real effects of bank credit shocks, including the consequences of bank mergers and the propagation of bank lending shocks.

Conclusion

• Importance of Local Branches: The study underscores the significance of local bank branches in facilitating small business growth and credit access.

This summary provides a structured overview of the key findings and methodologies used in the study, highlighting the substantial impact of nearby branch closures on small businesses.