日内瓦27日：大量资金、少量资本和很少改革：2023年的银行业动荡（英）

THE 2023 BANKING TURMOIL: MUCH MONEY, LITTLE CAPITAL, AND FEW REFORMS

Introduction

In March 2023, several large banks in the United States and Switzerland failed despite extensive reforms post the global financial crisis. Significant public interventions were necessary to stabilize the situation.

Key Findings and Analysis

1. Incomplete Reforms and Regulatory Gaps

   • Basel III Implementation: Despite the implementation of Basel III, it is still not fully enforced.
   • Vulnerabilities Added by Expansionary Monetary Policies: Low interest rates and quantitative easing (QE) following the global financial crisis and during the pandemic period contributed to increased vulnerabilities. This led to large maturity mismatches as short-term deposits grew significantly.

2. Impact of Rising Interest Rates

   • Liquidity Withdrawals: As interest rates rose, many banks faced liquidity withdrawals, particularly at the riskier institutions. This led to solvency issues.
   • Need for Better Integrated Policies: There is a call for better integrated monetary and financial stability policies to address these issues.

3. Recovery Regimes and Resolution Regimes

   • Prompt Early Actions: For globally systemic banks, recovery regimes require prompt and forceful early supervisory actions to quickly restore banks' soundness and mitigate run risks.
   • Strengthening Resolution Regimes: Strengthening resolution regimes includes earlier use of contingent debt conversion, greater ease in moving liquidity and capital intra-group, sufficient public liquidity backstops, and more options like open bank bail-ins.
   • Reduced Fragmentation and Better Coordination: National and international coordination would help improve supervisory effectiveness.

4. United States

   • Funding Fragilities: Funding fragilities remain significant, particularly in commercial real estate sectors. Banks with capital shortfalls need to promptly raise new equity to prevent runs.
   • Stress Tests: Supervisory stress tests should include more challenging interest rate scenarios.

5. Europe

   • Improved Capitalization and Liquidity: Bank capitalization and liquidity have improved, but many banks still face low valuations even though profitability has risen.
   • Banking Structure: The Banking Union remains incomplete, with no single deposit guarantee scheme and limited funding. This results in largely nation-based banking, with risks poorly shared.
   • New Bank Charter: A new bank charter with no limits on the movement of capital and liquidity could facilitate cross-border mergers and acquisitions, leading to more viable business models and market structures.

Conclusion

The banking system faces significant challenges, particularly due to incomplete reforms and vulnerabilities exacerbated by low interest rates and QE. Improved regulatory integration, stronger resolution regimes, and better cross-border coordination are essential to ensure financial stability and resilience.