贝弗里奇曲线告诉我们软着陆的可能性是什么？（英）
AI智能总结What Does the Beveridge Curve Tell Us about the Likelihood of Soft Landings?
Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic caused unprecedented disruptions to the U.S. and global economies. In the U.S., output fell sharply in the first half of 2020, and unemployment reached its highest level since 1940. However, the economy quickly recovered due to vaccine deployment, fiscal stimulus, and monetary accommodation. Job vacancies surged, while labor supply remained low due to reduced immigration and labor force participation. This led to severe labor shortages and high inflation.
Beveridge Curve Analysis The Beveridge curve, named after William Beveridge, helps understand the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies. It is particularly useful in assessing the likelihood of a soft landing in the labor market. Modern labor market models using the Beveridge curve were employed to evaluate conditions necessary for a soft landing and their likelihood during the pandemic.
Key Findings
- Non-Linearity and Non-Linearities: The Beveridge curve is highly non-linear, especially during extreme economic conditions. In 2022, the curve's non-linearity was significant due to the unprecedented labor market dynamics.
- Shifts in the Beveridge Curve: Changes in the pace of layoffs affect the Beveridge curve. Typically, layoffs increase during recessions, shifting the curve outward. However, in the early 2022 period, the curve could remain steep even as job vacancies decreased without a rise in layoffs.
- Modeling the Beveridge Curve: The model uses the equation: [ (1 - U_U) \cdot \tau = U_U \cdot f_f ] where ( U_U ) is unemployment, ( \tau ) is the separation rate, and ( f_f ) is the job-finding rate. In steady state, the model predicts the steady-state unemployment rate.
Economic Conditions for a Soft Landing The conditions for a soft landing included:
- High job vacancies and low unemployment.
- Steep Beveridge curve indicating a tight labor market.
- Reduced layoffs and unchanged unemployment despite declining vacancies.
Evolution of the Labor Market Since early 2022, the U.S. labor market has shown consistent behavior aligning with the conditions for a soft landing:
- Declining job vacancies without a corresponding increase in layoffs.
- Steepness in the Beveridge curve.
- Consistent wage growth and job quits.
Generalization Across Markets Similar trends were observed in regional U.S. and advanced foreign economies that also experienced a surge in job vacancies during the pandemic. This suggests that the steepness in the Beveridge curve at high vacancy levels is a broader phenomenon in advanced economies.
Conclusion
The Beveridge curve analysis indicates that a soft landing was a plausible outcome during the pandemic, supported by the steepness of the curve and consistent labor market behavior. These conditions have continued to hold true since then, suggesting that the labor market dynamics leading to a soft landing are robust.
