季度策略报告：成本定价下的跟随

2024年09月26日 成本定价下的跟随 观点摘要： [table_research]分析师：詹建平从业资格证号：F0259856投资咨询证号：Z0002423 ➢2024年Q3行情回顾：国际原油单边下行，主要原因是宏观气氛低迷和需求表现不佳。PX单边下行，八月下旬后下跌速度明显加快，创造6572元/吨的上市最低价。PTA的成本支撑坍塌，现货流通宽裕，价格宽幅下跌。MEG凭借低位的港口库存成为聚酯系商品中相对亮眼的存在。 能源化工期货（期权）研究室TEL：010-82295006Email：zhanjianping@swhysc.com ➢后市展望：PX方面，成本支撑不足叠加供应宽松，预计价格运行区间为6700-7300元/吨。在成本和基本面的双重打压下，PX已经跌至7000区间。Q4海内外装置有集中检修计划，供应压力将有所缓解。PTA对PX的刚需预计保持稳定，基本面在9月将边际改善。但宏观气氛低迷，油价上行空间有限。目前，PX仍在遵循成本定价逻辑，原油波动带来的影响远甚于基本面。 相关报告 2024M5 2024聚酯月度策略报告《需求何时迎来曙光》2024M6 2024聚酯半年度策略报告《背靠大树是否好乘凉》2024M7 2024聚酯月度策略报告《一荣俱荣，一损俱损》2024M8 2024聚酯月度策略报告《成本坍塌，焉有完卵》 PTA方面，进入传统旺季需求有所改善，预计价格运行区间为4750-5150元/吨。从成本来看，油价继续在地缘、利比亚原油供应和美联储政策间反复，没有明确的提振消息；PX的基本面仍然弱势，受原油的钳制。从基本面来看，仅有两套装置计划检修，若加工费明显回落，计划外的检修将增多。进入聚酯季节性旺季，对PTA需求或将回升，因此9-10月份PTA累库存速度或将放缓。MEG方面，国内开工提升叠加旺季表现不佳，预计价格运行区间为4350-4700元/吨。9-10月多套前期检修的装置有重启计划，经济效益驱使下乙二醇生产商负荷提升积极，乙二醇供应端有明显增量。海外市场供应增量也逐步兑现中，马来西亚石油75万吨装置重启后负荷快速提升，产出增量明显，后续将输送至中国市场。关注港口库存的动态变动，以及纺服旺季的实际成色。 风险提示：地缘爆发重大冲突，宏观政策利好 目录 （一）行情回顾：不断刷新上市以来的最低价....................................................................................................................5（二）开工负荷：高位运行带来的供应压力........................................................................................................................6（三）芳烃调油：中途离场后再无波澜...............................................................................................................................8（四）库存：检修季带来明显去库.....................................................................................................................................10 二、PTA.....................................................................................................................................................................11 （一）行情回顾：失去成本的锚，难以走出颓势..............................................................................................................11（二）开工：加工费逐渐压缩至区间下沿.........................................................................................................................12（三）库存：月度产量不排除再创新高的可能..................................................................................................................14（四）出口：8月出口同比增加近一倍..............................................................................................................................14 三、MEG.......................................................................................................................................................................15 （一）行情回顾：聚酯系商品中相对亮眼的存在..............................................................................................................15（二）开工：阶梯式下滑，集中检修期将结束..................................................................................................................16（三）库存：低库存是支撑价格的基石.............................................................................................................................17（四）进口：8月进口有所回升..........................................................................................................................................18 （一）行情回顾：无根之木，一口价政策名存实亡..........................................................................................................19（一）开工：未恢复至主动减产前水平，产销放量均源于刚需补库..............................................................................20（二）产销：放量均源于刚需补库.....................................................................................................................................22（四）库存：成本连续下行加剧库存贬值压力..................................................................................................................23（五）出口：瓶片延续亮眼，长丝难阻下滑......................................................................................................................24 （一）坯布价格上行困难，服装纺织类零售额同比继续负增长......................................................................................25（二）纺织服装出口低速增长、纺织品表现好于服装......................................................................................................27 六、后市展望及主要结论...............................................................................................................................................28 图表目录 第3页请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分图1：国际原油期货价格走势（美元/桶）·····························································································································5图2：聚酯上游原料价格走势（美元/吨）·····························································································································5图3：PX与原油价格走势（美元/桶，美元/吨）·················································································································5图4：PXCFR中国现货价格变化（美元/吨）······················································································································5图5：PX期货行情（手，元/吨）··········································································································································6图6：PX基差走势（元/吨）·················································································································································6图7：PX国内开工率