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CNBC / NRF 零售监视器，由 Affinity Solutions 提供支持， 2024 年 8 月报告

商贸零售2024-09-13NRF庄***

AI智能总结

CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Overview

Key Findings:

Monthly and Annual Growth: The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, leveraging Affinity Solutions' data from over 140 million credit and debit card transactions, measures the monthly and annual change in U.S. retail sales.
Seasonal Adjustments: Metrics include both monthly growth, seasonally adjusted, and yearly growth, not seasonally adjusted.
Industry-Specific Insights: The report provides detailed insights across various sectors including building & garden supplies, clothing & accessories, electronics & appliances, food services & drinking places, furniture & home furnishings, general merchandise, grocery & beverage, health & personal care, non-store retailers, and sporting goods stores.

Methodology:

Data Source: Utilizes transaction data from more than 140 million credit and debit cards, encompassing nearly nine billion transactions totaling over $500 billion in annual spending.
Seasonality Adjustment: Applies similar seasonalization approaches as the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure accuracy and consistency.
Accuracy and Correlation: Highly correlated with the U.S. Census Bureau's revised retail sales figures, without undergoing revisions after initial release.
Collaboration: Developed in partnership with CNBC, the National Retail Federation (NRF), and Affinity Solutions, incorporating expertise from leading economists and retail specialists.

Comparisons with U.S. Census Bureau’s MRTS:

Survey vs. Transaction Data: Unlike the U.S. Census Bureau’s Advanced Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) which relies on surveys of businesses, the Retail Monitor utilizes transaction data for greater scale, accuracy, and reliability.
Real-Time Insights: Offers near real-time views of retail sales, bypassing the revision process typical of survey-based tools.
Relevance in Evolving Retail Landscape: Addresses the evolving nature of retail by incorporating high-frequency transaction data, suitable for tracking changes in traditional and emerging retail channels.

Calculation Process:

Anonymized Aggregation: All data processed through Affinity Solutions is anonymized and aggregated, ensuring no personal identifiable information is included.
Seasonal Alignment: Seasonal adjustments align with established U.S. Census Bureau methodologies, ensuring consistency and reliability in reporting.

This report serves as a critical tool for understanding the health and trends within the U.S. retail sector, offering insights that are both timely and reflective of actual consumer spending patterns.

CNBC / NRF 零售监视器，由 Affinity Solutions 提供支持， 2024 年 8 月报告

CNBC/NRF零售监视器，由Affinity解决方案提供支持 2024年8月关于RetailMonitor CNBC/NRF零售监控提供了每月零售销售表现的初步视角。零售监控利用AffinitySolutions超过140万张信用卡和借记卡的数据，涵盖近90亿笔交易，总消费额超过5000亿美元，以此来衡量美国零售销售的月度和年度变化。了解更多信息：NRF|CNBC零售监控零售总额(不包括天然气和汽车) 核心零售销售(不包括天然气、汽车和餐馆) 月增长，经季节性调整。 Mar'24 Apr'24 May'24 Jun'24 Jul'24 Aug'24 0.36% 0.40% 0.47% 0.95% 0.45% 1.20% 0.23% 0.30% 0.74% 0.17% 0.26% 1.35% 年增长，不经季节调整。 2.92% 3.03% 3.42% 1.69% 2.11% 2.72% -0.05% 2.88% 3.07% 0.92% 1.93% Mar'24 -0.60% Apr'24* May'24 Jun'24 Jul'24 Aug'24 4月的年同比下降似乎是一个异常现象，反映出去年复活节落在4月，而今年落在3月。4月今年比去年少了两个周末天数。行业洞察：零售额逐月变化，经季节性调整 Jun'24 Jul'24 Aug'24 总零售额(例如汽车和天然气) 0.47% 0.74% 0.45% 核心零售 0.30% 0.95% 0.17% 建筑和花园用品 -1.80% 1.41% -1.31% 服装和配饰 -0.11% 0.57% 2.13% 电子电器 -1.02% -0.53% -0.95% 食品服务和饮用场所 1.21% -0.15% 1.71% 家具和家居装饰 -0.62% 0.32% -0.17% 一般商品 0.61% 1.27% 0.28% 杂货和饮料 1.01% 0.60% 0.86% 健康与个人护理 -0.04% 1.75% 0.28% 非商店零售商 1.78% 0.82% 1.49% 体育用品，爱好，音乐和书籍商店 0.68% 2.09% -2.89% 零售额同比变化，未经调整 Jun'24 Jul'24 Aug'24 总零售额(例如汽车和天然气) 3.42% 0.92% 2.11% 核心零售 3.07% 1.69% 1.93% 建筑和花园用品 -3.46% 2.29% -2.92% 服装和配饰 5.35% 5.27% 11.44% 电子电器 -3.24% -1.97% -2.54% 食品服务和饮用场所 4.84% -2.29% 2.90% 家具和家居装饰 -3.26% -4.79% -2.57% 一般商品 5.79% 1.13% 1.94% 杂货和饮料 4.31% 0.47% 2.53% 健康与个人护理 4.63% 9.68% 6.69% 非商店零售商 23.08% 18.45% 17.03% 体育用品，爱好，音乐和书籍商店 -0.52% -1.75% -10.78% 常见问题什么是由AffinitySolutions提供支持的CNBC/NRF零售监视器？ CNBC/NRF零售监测指数（由AffinitySolutions赋能，以下简称零售监测指数）是一项每月衡量零售销售的指标，由CNBC、美国全国零售联合会与AffinitySolutions合作创建。所有由AffinitySolutions生成的信息均基于消费者授权进行聚合，并不包含任何个人可识别信息。由AffinitySolutions提供支持的CNBC/NRF零售监视器的准确性如何？ CNBC/NRF零售监控系统由AffinitySolutions提供支持，采用与美国人口普查局相同的季节调整方法，并已被证明与人口普查局修订后的零售销售数据高度相关——即在收集新数据并对数字进行细化后发布的调整后数字。与MRTS不同，零售监控系统在首次发布后不会进行修订。 CNBC、NRF和AffinitySolutions与领先经济学家及零售专家合作，确保了零售监控方法论的准确性和可靠性。 CNBC/NRF零售监控（由AffinitySolutions提供动力）与美国人口普查局每月零售销售发布有何不同？美国人口普查局的先进月度零售贸易调查（MRTS）依赖于对一部分企业的调查以估算广泛的零售贸易活动。通常在每月的第九个工作日发布，MRTS的数据随后会根据从被调查企业新获取的数据多次进行修订。虽然MRTS已经长期作为衡量零售行业的资源被认可，但新兴的数据来源以及传统渠道界限的模糊意味着是时候重新评估零售销售的跟踪和测量方法了。在过去几年中，高频交易数据集已经达到了足够的规模、准确性和可靠性，可以作为计算零售销售的合法工具。通过使用AffinitySolutions提供的实际消费者支出数据，零售监控器可以提供接近实时的零售销售视图，同时绕过了基于调查的工具所需的修订过程。由AffinitySolutions提供支持的CNBC/NRF零售监控如何计算？所有指标均基于Affinity的完整综合数据集计算得出，并在指定情况下进行了季节调整。季节调整使我们的方法与美国人口普查局的公认方法保持一致，从而确保了一致性和可靠性。通过这种方法，零售监测提供了与人口普查自身修订后的零售数据相契合的及时、数据驱动的零售健康快照。Affinity解决方案生成的所有信息均已匿名化并进行了聚合，不包含任何个人消费者的可识别信息。

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