Natural Gas Liquids: Supply Outlook 2008-2015
AI智能总结Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Supply Outlook 2008-2015
Summary
Global Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) production is forecast to increase by 3.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2008 to 2015. The growth is primarily driven by OPEC countries, contributing 2.9 mb/d, while non-OPEC countries contribute 0.4 mb/d. This growth accounts for 60% of the total liquids growth from 2008 to 2014.
The report highlights that NGLs from gas processing plants are expected to displace refinery-sourced LPG or naphtha, while rising condensate supply impacts the quality of refinery crude feedstocks. Condensates can be added to crude oil streams to lighten and sweeten them, and they also act as a diluent for heavy, viscous bitumen and heavy oil export streams. The development of dedicated condensate splitting capacity to distill petroleum products directly from condensate outside of the conventional refining sector is another trend to be analyzed.
Between 2008 and 2012, the liquids ratio (NGLs in kilobarns per day over dry gas in kilobillion equivalent barrels per day) increases from 19.2% to 23.3%, indicating a growing proportion of NGLs in natural gas production. Four key trends driving this increase are:
- Increasing scale of natural gas developments.
- Increased utilization of associated gas.
- Wetter non-associated gas gradually replacing traditional dry, non-associated gas.
- Replacement of wet associated gas by dry non-associated gas in some countries.
The increasing utilization of natural gas is largely a result of measures to reduce flaring of associated gas. The World Bank estimates that 140 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas was flared worldwide in 2008, implying nearly 0.5 mb/d of NGLs are being flared. Reductions in flaring have significantly boosted NGL production in Russia, Nigeria, and Angola.
Despite significant revisions to individual country data and projections, the overall global gas liquids production estimates for 2008-2014 remained relatively unchanged, with a minor 216 kb/d downward revision compared to previous estimates. OPEC's forecast output was revised downward by an average of 339 kb/d, offsetting an upward adjustment of +123 kb/d for non-OPEC countries.
The report identifies inconsistencies in reported data, making it challenging to assess global liquids supply. It recommends better definitions and reporting standards for NGLs, particularly for data gathering and reporting for gas plant NGLs and field condensate separately, and establishing GTL as a separate category.
The rapid development of non-conventional gas deposits in North America and elsewhere has fundamentally changed perceptions of global gas supply over the next decade. While these unconventional sources tend to be drier, the liquids content varies widely. Longer-term NGL supply projections need to capture the associated liquids potential if large-scale development continues.
This review underscores the importance of consistent data and definitions for NGLs in global oil supply analysis. It aims to improve the NGL supply reporting and forecasts in the Oil Market Report (OMR) and Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR), providing a comprehensive 2008-2015 supply forecast and analysis of market implications.
Future work will focus on sustaining the analytical capability within the Oil Industry and Markets Division (OIMD) and conducting more detailed work on the sources and characteristics of future gas supplies.
