Oil Market Report - July 2017
AI智能总结HIGHLIGHTS
Global Oil Supply
- June 2017: Global oil supply rose by 720 kb/d to 97.46 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d above the same period last year.
- 2017 & 2018: Non-OPEC production is expected to expand by 0.7 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d respectively.
OPEC Crude Output
- June 2017: OPEC crude output increased by 340 kb/d to 32.6 mb/d, driven by Saudi Arabia's increased flows and higher rates from Libya and Nigeria.
- Compliance: OPEC compliance fell to 78%, the lowest rate this year, while the non-OPEC group saw an improvement to 82%.
Global Demand
- First Quarter 2017: Demand grew by 1.0 mb/d.
- Second Quarter 2017: Demand accelerated to 1.5 mb/d.
- 2017 Forecast: Global demand is expected to reach 98.0 mb/d, revised up by 0.1 mb/d from last month’s report.
- 2018 Forecast: Further growth of 1.4 mb/d is foreseen, with global demand reaching 99.4 mb/d.
OECD Industry Stocks
- May 2017: OECD industry stocks fell by 6 mb due to lower imports of crude and products.
- Five-Year Average: Stocks are now 266 mb above the five-year average, down from 300 mb in April.
- June Preliminary Data: There was a moderate reduction in OECD stocks.
Benchmark Crude Oil Prices
- June 2017: Prices fell by $3-4/bbl on average, remaining close to their level when the OPEC output deal was announced.
- Sour Crudes: Dubai, Maya, and Urals were boosted by tight supplies.
Global Refinery Throughput
- Third Quarter 2017: Global refinery throughput is forecast to reach a record high of 81 mb/d, up 0.8 mb/d from second quarter levels.
- US Contribution: The US contributes half of the 3Q17 build.
- Seasonal Decline: Runs will decline seasonally by 1.5 mb/d from the peak August level to October.
Summary
The global oil market experienced significant changes in June 2017, with supply rising sharply due to increased production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. OPEC compliance fell to its lowest point this year, while non-OPEC production showed steady growth. Demand saw a dramatic acceleration in the second quarter, with further growth expected in 2018. OECD industry stocks declined, and benchmark crude oil prices fell but remained stable compared to the OPEC deal announcement. Refinery throughput reached record highs in the third quarter, with the US contributing significantly.
