Oil Market Report - April 2024

12 April 2024 •World oil demand growth continues to lose momentum with 1Q24 growth of 1.6 mb/d,120 kb/d below our previous forecast due to exceptionally weak OECD deliveries. Withthepost-Covid rebound now largely complete,and vehicle efficiencies and anexpanding EV fleet acting as further drags on oil demand, growth in 2024 and 2025slows to 1.2 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d, respectively. •Non-OPEC+, led by the US, is set to drive world supply growth through 2025. For 2024,global output is forecast to rise by 770 kb/d to 102.9 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ production willexpand by 1.6 mb/d, while OPEC+ supply could fall 820 kb/d if voluntary cuts remain inplace. In 2025, global growth could rise to 1.6 mb/d. Non-OPEC+ is forecast to leadgains, rising 1.4 mb/d, while OPEC+ output could increase by 220 kb/d if curbs stay inplace. •Global refinery throughputs are forecast to rise by 1 mb/d to 83.3 mb/d in 2024, 160 kb/dless than in last month’sReport, on lower Russian runs, unplanned outages in Europeand still-tepid Chinese activity. Throughputs are projected to increase by 830 kb/d to84.2 mb/d in 2025, as non-OECD growth of 1.1 mb/d more than offsets declines in theOECD. •Global observed oil inventories rose by 43.3 mb in February to a seven-month apex withoil on water at its highest level in 15 months. By contrast, on land stocks fell to theirlowest since at least 2016. OECD industry stocks decreased by 7.6 mb in February,remaining 65.1 mb below the five-year average. Early data indicate that they built by22 mb in March. •ICE Brent crude futures hit a six-month high of $90/bbl in early April amid escalatingtensions in the Middle East, attacks on Russian refineries and an extension of OPEC+outputs cuts through June. Crude’s price strength was underpinned by bullish investorsentiment, with exchange net fund positions in Brent rising to their highest in a year. Tables of contents Increased spare ........................................................................................................................ 3 Demand...................................................................................................................................... 4 Global oil demand growth returns to historical trend............................................................... 6OECD ...................................................................................................................................... 8Non-OECD ............................................................................................................................ 12 Supply...................................................................................................................................... 17 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 17OPEC+ crude supply ............................................................................................................ 18Keeping the world in balance ................................................................................................ 20Non-OPEC+ .......................................................................................................................... 23Offshore projects provide the next wave of non-OPEC+ growth .......................................... 23 Refining ................................................................................................................................... 30 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 30Regional refining developments ........................................................................................... 31Non-OECD countries drive 2025 crude throughput growth .................................................. 32Russian refinery outages risk disruption to middle distillate markets ................................... 36Product cracks and refinery margins .................................................................................... 38 Stocks ...................................................................................................................................... 45 Overview ............................................................................................................................... 45Implied balance ..................................................................................................................... 46Recent OECD industry stock changes ................................................................................. 47Other stocks developments .................................................................................................. 49 Prices ....................................................................................................................................... 52 Overview ........................................................................