COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking Countries' Ambitions and Identifying Policies to Bridge the Gap
Executive Summary
Nearly 200 countries made significant pledges on energy at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, aiming to limit global warming to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement. For the first time, governments set key goals for 2030, including tripling renewable power capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements, substantially reducing methane emissions, and accelerating the just, orderly, and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.
Now, attention has shifted towards implementation, particularly as countries prepare updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. Countries are expected to submit new NDCs next year, including revised ambitions for 2030 and new goals for 2035. This presents an important opportunity for countries to commit to or raise their ambitions to fully implement the global pledges made at COP28.
Recent IEA analysis indicates that tripling global renewable power capacity by 2030 is an ambitious yet achievable goal, given record-breaking annual deployment, remarkable momentum in the sector, and increasing competitiveness with fossil fuels—especially for solar PV and wind.
This report aims to highlight what is still needed to achieve this goal. It covers almost 150 countries and answers four main questions:
- How are renewable power capacity ambitions reflected in existing government commitments in NDCs, and in countries' ambitions, announcements, and plans?
- Are countries on track to achieve these ambitions?
- How do these ambitions measure against the COP28 pledge to triple global capacity by 2030?
- What are relevant policy priorities to address gaps in both implementation and ambition?
Key Findings:
- Renewable Capacity Ambitions in NDCs: Only 14 out of 194 previously submitted NDCs include explicit targets for total renewable power capacity by 2030.
- Current Ambitions: Renewable capacity ambitions across NDCs amount to approximately 1,300 GW, which is just 12% of the global tripling pledge requiring at least 11,000 GW by 2030.
- China's Goal: China aims to have 1,200 GW of solar PV capacity by 2030, contributing significantly to the global effort.
Conclusion:
Only a few countries explicitly lay out renewable capacity ambitions in their current NDCs. To meet the COP28 pledge, significant efforts are needed to align national ambitions with the required global tripling of renewable capacity by 2030. Policy priorities should focus on closing implementation gaps and raising ambitions where necessary.
