呦䖦間掾 瞬汻煝疵·⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 鰑勔䉗㐙撌掾鿛瓌蔸耘臅⥈ꮴ䛉溸虹㞎┱ⲇ䍳 ——⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋ꏕ翞⽟間㷌 2024䌑08劓31傽 2024䌑8劓睘5⽟㝕稝鰑分䉗㐙銩楓续⽟8劓26傽蔸8劓30傽耘德缋嵴溸甯⣍銩⻓⾕㸰䋀ꄽ芤┪ⶬյ姚⩧ⶔꄽ芤侒罏┱䖎德缋嵴⢷怫♨傽续ꄽ芤溸廛⾕┪ⶬ➶❈䫌鰑脢ꓨ假駬⛓⻄德㝠鉿溸鯴䉕侓瞬鴤䔴ն㐃ꂘ┞芻冎┬鰑续䉗㐙溸⪸峜掾婞鿛⻔㝠鉿溸⯈椚⬑瞬㹐⪼儱ꮴ䛉溸虹㞎⾕ⲇ䍳ն俠✅匡澚⫰分䈰╃ꓭ㺲耘⩧䭰俚⾕勶漩䉗㐙俠✅銩⻓鿲㟲ն ガ䉗㐙┞ⸯ岓续⽟ⸯ岓䉗㐙全锢⺇⯒OPEC+㵌䉘♈10劓⚌鱎㙨Ⲏ焪岓❵䍎ꓪ⬑㴼溸䔕⿱뀔駉傽分ꓪ㸞㙨Ⲏ18┧哇ն婟㜾耘德7劓⚌点Ⲧ溸巆鰆脢佻⮃俚䰕⯸䒙◗䉗㐙㸉耘臅⥈9劓ꮴ䛉50BPs溸뀔劻㸉岓⚃类Ⲏ◗ ┬鉿⸐ⲇն⻎僓㹻硅⯈嬠◱㎌⫐ꌄ⬐痓㸍蔺焪岓分ꓪ㝕䋀⭀㸵㐃焝劻⫐䳀䮵 ◗岓⚃⛰䉗㐙㸉⪼ꪍ劻䔕⿱溸䬎䗣潸㸉劔ꮺն◝묛ꓭ续⽟묛ꓭ⚃呬全锢⺇⯒耘德睘◝㳌䍳缋嵴俚䰕┪⟶♨耘德PCE朮⚃䭰俚睋⻉뀔劻溸䔕⿱耘⩧⾕德⡺侅漩椚┪ⶬ㸉묛ꓭ⚃呬类Ⲏ⸐ⲇն㹻硅㠁婟묛ꓭ⚃呬♇受䭦㐃2500耘⩧/漯⺶ꮩꂀ괭衄銩僻䉗㐙㸉묛ꓭ溸ꉍꯟ괛寛❹撬点Ⲧն ⡺⯟䉗㐙┞耘⡺续⽟耘德德⡺侅漩椚䓡䕒괭衄┪鉿⪼╚ꪍ劻⡺⯟侅漩椚溸┪鉿䋀䍳㝕◟焝劻⡺⯟նꂘ┞鱂ⲹ全锢⺇耘德7劓╗☭巆鰆佻⮃PCE朮⚃䭰俚楒嬠┪巹0.2%溸䲀Ⲙ騍俚䰕睋⻉䉗㐙뀔劻䉗㐙㸉耘臅⥈㐃9劓劲駖┪ꮴ䛉50╗㕈掾溸뀔劻劔䨿⭀䒙ꂛ┞婢䈷㎷◗䉗㐙㸉耘臅⥈┬劓ꮴ䛉25╗㕈掾溸뀔劻ն◝㎼⡺8劓30傽㝠鉿ꄽꁩ㴸羱假駦溸“⪫䐷䉗㐙德 ⡺冲ⷀ╃ⲏ⪫⼴”吡潨㵌䉘8劓㝠鉿䐷㺥◗⪫䐷䉗㐙德⡺冲ⷀ亣✑⻔ꌄ⮕ ⪫䐷䉗㐙╃ⲏ┞绣☆儅ガ冲⪝焝劻ꮺ德⡺䌔ⷀ⮃ꪍ劻ꮺ德⡺⪢劓⬥冲⪝⡺ ⯟긖⡽╬1000☳⩧ն婟公劔⯈◟缰䭦⻔┪⡿倩溸侅漩椚剱绻❈䕒德⡺溸劻 ꮺ⯈䈽受䭦㐃婞䊬寊䌐⺇婟䔕⿱德⡺⯈椚㸰䋀騫俠ն 寤椚䉗㐙┞耘⩧䭰俚续⽟耘⩧䭰俚銩⻓点Ⲧ全锢⺇⯒耘德睘◝㳌䍳德 ⫐气分䙰⡽┪⟶7劓╗☭巆鰆佻⮃朮⚃䭰俚䓡䕒楒嬠㙨ꪍ䲀Ⲙն◝긌耘鯴䉕ꯙ⺇耘⩧䭰俚点ⲹ㎈ⶬ溸⸐⯜㜾9劓ꮴ䛉뀔劻┱䖎德缋嵴泹鿞⪴⻎㸍蔺姚⩧⩽耘⩧溸┬鳰ն蝠德缋嵴㙨ꪍ긖╤侒罏⾕ꄽ芤┬ꮴ鿲䢌溸낊ꯟ绪茤╬蝠꩗䳀❵鳉㝉佻临ն傽续7劓㝤╃椚䓡䕒2.7%⮱2023䌑3劓♨匡假둛䉗㐙㸉傽续缋嵴㜩蜖溸⯼冎䭦驐䡪䘒䍳㸍蔺傽⩧㸉耘⩧溸┬鳰䋀䍳兇詇ն갫濫 ☭宑䉕寤椚뀔劻溸甯㴼▇⯼璺⸐溸耘⩧㜾寤䐷㢽缏寤ꓤ侒◗⮃⺛ガ溸缏寤괛寛♈脯䲀둛◗☭宑䉕溸⚃⡽ն⻎僓☭宑䉕寤椚䧯☆ꓪ溸㙨Ⲏ儙◗䉗㐙㸉☭宑䉕괛寛溸㙨Ⲏ农儱☭宑䉕寤椚┪巹溸┞╗潳䱹ⸯ㎌ն 勶漩䉗㐙耘德睘◝㳌䍳GDP┪⟶⺖Ⲏ耘臅⥈귱瀃溸ꄽ芤䭰吙廛⾕┪ⶬ䉗㐙㸉耘德缋嵴銻ꃹ䬎䗣⭀ꃹ䳀䮵䉗㐙낊ꯟ⢟㟲⪢槊㝃俚全锢艧䭰䓡䕒┪巹ն⻎僓耘艧䉗㐙ꄽ駗纳ⲏ┱⟥䛉䪫勘鉿╃銩⻓┯✲全锢⺇蝠⚾ꁒ╃缥鱪뀔劻䋀䍳鿲㸰溸䔕⿱ն 낊ꯟ䳀獏嶯㜾ꮴ䛉┯燛㴼낊ꯟ㐌罔㎌筷䪑Ⲙ낊ꯟ⪢槊ꄑ公缏卸┯燛㴼낊ꯟ䉗㐙䝠缦┯甯㴼낊ꯟն ⮕卥䉞 匤鱪 010-8092-7696 yangchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn ⮕卥䉞溫駘罒焺S0130522030004 潸⪸煝疵 2024-08-16㝠㎼⚕侊긞全뀨䫌鰑㐃䱲筻 2024-08-12⮃嶯全뀨䫌鰑▇Ⲏ䔰⪸瓭ꓨ匡䱲駐 2024-08-06ⷧ䍳艧䉗勑匡ꂖ劔䭦缩┪巹疿ꭊ⻜ 2024-08-05傽续艧䉗凾鳰溸芻⻑ 2024-07-29艧䉗㐙䫌鰑瞬汻⮕卥ꓨ掾䉘㹾艧绞⯈┱璇䪫鿝Ⲙ瞬汻 2024-07-28A艧⮃嶯全뀨╚ꪍ劻䫌鰑㺥労▘낊熏嶛䪉䉛ꂜ薨 2024-07-22◝ⶥ㺐┩╚⪢⚷վ⬑㴼տ窢玘闌騣A 艧䉗㐙䫌鰑㸞臔撌╚㎼䑑⻓♣鉿ꂛ 2024-07-202024Q2⪫Ⳬ㕈ꓭ䭦♎⮕卥ꓨ掾Ⲏ♎璇䪫升㑊艧䉗㐙ꏕ翞搑䍳┪ⶬ 2024-06-222024䌑㝕稝鰑分ꏕ翞╚劻䫌鰑㺥労䰁漩漥輁䍎ⲹ脯騳 2024-06-212024䌑艧䉗㐙╚劻䫌鰑㺥労愗ⲹ䔶 2024-06-212024䌑A艧䉗㐙╚劻䫌鰑㺥労┱僓 ⢫鉿臔ⲹ騳ꂜ 2024-05-03ꂀ劻艧╬✇㝕巹 2024-04-13假“㎼▟匜”䑜뀖鰑续䉗㐙둛鯵ꓪ㺥 2024-04-02◝㳌䍳艧䉗㐙䫌鰑㺥労瞏낊匡 2024-04-01◝㳌䍳A艧䉗㐙䫌鰑㺥労绞⯈┱䧯ꪍ 鿝鿛瞬汻 2024-03-16䫌鰑閗閤┬“假鯵气分ⲇ”闌騣 潨䓡 Catalog ┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋鉿䝠㎈뀎 ◝յ㝕㴵ガ ┞ⸯ岓䉗㐙 ◝묛ꓭ䉗㐙 ┩յ⡺⯟䉗㐙 ┞耘㎼㎼⡺ ◝╚㎼㎼⡺....................................................................................................................................... ㎃յ寤椚䉗㐙 ┞耘⩧䭰俚 ◝姚⩧⩽耘⩧ ┩蝠꩗⩽耘⩧ ㎃耘⩧⩽傽⩧ ◩耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕 ◩յ勶漩䉗㐙 ⪮յ낊ꯟ䳀獏 ┞յ⪢槊㝕稝鰑☋鉿䝠㎈뀎 续⽟8劓26傽蔸8劓30傽耘德缋嵴溸甯⣍銩⻓⾕㸰䋀ꄽ芤┪ⶬյ姚⩧ⶔꄽ芤侒罏┱䖎德缋嵴⢷怫♨傽续ꄽ芤溸廛⾕┪ⶬ➶❈䫌鰑脢ꓨ假駬⛓⻄德㝠鉿溸鯴䉕侓瞬鴤䔴ն㐃ꂘ ┞芻冎┬鰑续䉗㐙溸⪸峜掾婞鿛⻔㝠鉿溸⯈椚⬑瞬㹐⪼儱ꮴ䛉溸虹㞎⾕ⲇ䍳ն 俠✅匡澚⫰分䈰╃ꓭ㺲耘⩧䭰俚⾕勶漩䉗㐙俠✅銩⻓鿲㟲ն⪾✅匡澚㸉嬠┪⽟侅漽⚃10䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚┪鉿10╗㕈掾CBOT㸰뫘巹4.55%DCE꧇焸焪巹3.93%CBOT椝稌巹2.69%CBOT㝕骀巹2.67%⮱╃升䭰巹2.17%䚔气䭰俚巹2.14%广駩䧯䭰巹2.04%㶡僓假Ⲏ㑗嶯㿔䭰俚巹1.62%ⷧ䍳SENSEX30巹1.58%10䌑劻╚⡺德⡺侅漩椚┪鉿 1.57╗㕈掾䖎德DAX巹1.47%SHFE酧绵ꦨ巹1.32%姚⩧ⶔSTOXX巹1.18%耘⩧䭰俚巹1.04%ꇔ樴偅䈰╃䭰俚巹0.94%傽缋225巹0.74%岻德CAC40巹0.71%蝠德㶡僓100巹0.59%吙册500巹0.24%耘⩧⩽傽⩧巹0.23%苪䗅僻䭰俚鳰0.11%蝠꩗⩽耘⩧鳰0.34%LMEꧢ⾕COMEX묛ꓭ性鳰0.40%┪駩䭰俚յLMEꨒ⾕耘⩧⩽☭宑䉕性鳰0.43%绯偅ꁒ⩴䭰俚鳰0.92%姚⩧⩽耘⩧鳰1.30%ICE䉘岓鳰1.41%NYMEX㝙撬官鳰1.56%NYMEXWTI ⸯ岓鳰1.58%COMEX溮ꧼ鳰1.93%LMEꧣ鳰3.78%ն 耘德缋嵴⮕卥㹾⟶婞◗睘◝㳌䍳㵄ꮪGDP䌑㳌楒嬠㙨ꪍ椚氮⯼⡽2.8%┪騫蔸3.0%兇獏⮃耘德缋嵴溸䭦缩꼐䙎ն┱婟⻎僓耘德ガⲏꌄ⪫䉘7劓PCE⚃呬䭰俚⻎嬠┪巹2.5%Ⰷ ꯙ난⾕茤徏溸呦䖦PCE⚃呬䭰俚⻎嬠┪巹2.6%鿲6劓⚌劔䨿Ⲏꅌն䉗㐙䳀䮵㸉耘德缋嵴⟥䖦溸⻎僓点◗㸉耘臅⥈9劓ꮴ䛉25╗㕈掾溸뀔劻ն 姚嵌⽶긖姚潊缛駉㹾䉘溸俚䰕兇獏姚⩧ⶔ8劓⚌HICP⮵⡽楒嬠┪ⶬ0.2%⻎嬠㙨䋀 ♈2.6%ꮴ蔸2.2%睋⻉䉗㐙뀔劻ն呦䖦䌑ꄽ芤椚ꮴ蔸2.8%农┱뀔劻潸睋ꂘꂛ┞婢点◗䉗 㐙㸉姚嵌㝠鉿㐃9劓劲駖┪ꮴ䛉溸뀔劻ն撬脯䖎德睘◝㳌䍳GDP楒嬠覶罥0.1%⪼缋嵴긖╤㙨ꪍ⢷怫낊ꯟ㸉姚⩧ⶔ俠✅缋嵴⯼冎分气鯬긖䔕⿱ն 傽续⽶긖8劓╅☓CPI⻎嬠┪巹2.6%鱪⮃䉗㐙뀔劻楒嬠㙨ꪍ♈0.3%┪ⶬ蔸0.5%ն呦䖦CPI⻎嬠┪巹2.4%农둛◟뀔劻ն✑╬⪢德ꄽ芤溸뀖⩰䭰吙╅☓CPI溸鱪뀔劻┪巹㙨点◗ 䉗㐙㸉傽续㝠鉿ꂛ┞婢Ⲏ䛉溸뀔劻ն ㎽1⪢槊全锢㝕稝鰑分侅漩椚銩⻓⪼╚⡺⯟侅漩椚峒Ⲙ⛻╬BP⪼✍鰑分峒Ⲙ╬% (%)(BP) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 10䌑劻耘德德⡺侅漩椚 CBOT㸰뫘 DCE꧇焸焪 CBOT椝稌 CBOT㝕骀 ⮱╃升䭰 䚔气䭰俚 广駩䧯䭰 㶡僓假Ⲏ ⷧ䍳㑗嶯㿔䭰俚 SENSEX30 10䌑劻╚⡺德⡺侅漩椚 SH䖎德DAX 姚⩧FE酧绵ꦨ ⶔSTOXX 耘⩧䭰俚 ꇔ樴偅䈰╃䭰俚 岻傽缋225 蝠德CAC40 德㶡僓100 耘吙册500 苪⩧⩽傽⩧ 蝠䗅僻䭰俚 ꩗⩽耘⩧ COMLMEꧢ EX묛ꓭ ┪駩䭰俚 耘⩧LMEꨒ 绯偅⩽☭宑䉕 姚ꁒ⩴䭰俚 ⩧⩽耘⩧ NYMICE䉘岓 NYMEEX㝙撬官 CXWTIⸯ岓 OMEX溮ꧼ LMEꧣ -6 鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ ◝յ㝕㴵ガ ┞ⸯ岓䉗㐙 䨗蔸8劓30傽鿲┪⽟劻鯴缏砯⚃WTIⸯ岓鳰1.71%䫟73.55耘⩧/哇BRENTⸯ岓鳰0.28%䫟78.80耘⩧/哇ն续⽟ⸯ岓䉗㐙全锢⺇⯒OPEC+㵌䉘♈10劓⚌鱎㙨Ⲏ焪岓❵䍎ꓪ⬑㴼溸䔕⿱뀔駉傽分ꓪ㸞㙨Ⲏ18┧哇婟公僁㐃ꄢ婢闌ꯙ⩰⯼㵄类溸⭀分䲃类ն婟㜾耘德7劓 ⚌点Ⲧ溸巆鰆脢佻⮃俚䰕⯸䒙◗䉗㐙㸉耘臅⥈9劓ꮴ䛉50BPs溸뀔劻♈脯㸉岓⚃类Ⲏ◗┬鉿 ⸐ⲇն⻎僓㹻硅⯈嬠◱㎌⫐ꌄ⬐痓㸍蔺焪岓分ꓪ㝕䋀⭀㸵㐃焝劻⫐䳀䮵◗岓⚃⛰䉗㐙㸉⪼ꪍ劻䔕⿱溸䬎䗣潸㸉劔ꮺն (美元/桶) WTIⸯ岓 Brentⸯ岓 ㎽2WTIⸯ岓┱BRENTⸯ岓䓡䕒⽟┬鳰㎽3续⽟耘德API┱EIAⸯ岓䍍㲾┬ꮴ 95200 0 90 85 80-200 70 75-400 2023-12-29 2024-01-12 2024-01-26 2024-02-09 2024-02-23 2024-03-08 2024-03-22 2024-04-05 2024-04-19 2024-05-03 2024-05-17 2024-05-31 2024-06-14 2024-06-28 2024-07-12 2024-07-26 2024-08-09 2024-08-23 65-600 耘德:API䍍㲾:ⸯ岓:楒嬠㙨⭀耘德:EIA䍍㲾:ⸯ岓:楒嬠㙨⭀ (万桶) 鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ 2024-07-12 2024-07-19 2024-07-26 2024-08-02 2024-08-09 2024-08-16 2024-08-23 ◝묛ꓭ䉗㐙 㐌罔侓岖낊ꯟ䭰俚 ㎽4续⽟COMEX묛ꓭ劻鯴⚃呬䓡䕒┬ꮴ⛆俌ꓭ⻓㸰䋀侅巹㎽5䭦缩⪸峜㐌罔낊ꯟ㸉ガ䉗㐙溸愗㐃⬐⮄ ⛆俌楓鯴묛ꓭ:♨耘⩧駉⚃ 26(00美元/盎司)劻鯴侅漽⚃(ꂞ缩):COMEX묛ꓭ 2400 2200 2000 2023-12-29 2024-01-19 2024-02-09 2024-03-01 2024-03-22 2024-04-12 2024-05-03 2024-05-24 2024-06-14 2024-07-05 2024-07-26 2024-08-16 1800 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2023-12-29 2024-01-12 2024-01-26 2024-02-09 2024-02-23 2024-03-08 2024-03-22 2024-04-05 2024-04-19 2024-05-03 2024-05-17 2024-05-31 2024-06-14 2024-06-28 2024-07-12 2024-07-26 2024-08-09 2024-08-23 0 鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ鰑倣匡徏Wind╚㎼ꧼ岉駩⯟煝疵ꯗ 䨗蔸8劓30傽鿲┪⽟侅漽⚃COMEX묛ꓭ劻鯴鳰0.32%䫟2498.80耘⩧/漯⺶⛆俌 ꓭ⻓巹0.09%䫟2513.55耘⩧/漯⺶ն续⽟묛ꓭ⚃呬全锢⺇⯒耘德睘◝㳌䍳缋嵴俚䰕┪⟶♨ 耘德PCE朮⚃䭰俚睋⻉뀔劻溸䔕⿱㸍蔺耘⩧⾕德⡺侅漩椚┪ⶬ♈脯㸉묛ꓭ⚃呬类Ⲏ⸐ⲇꅐ䧯㸰䋀┬鳰ն㹻硅㠁婟묛ꓭ⚃呬♇受䭦㐃2500耘⩧/