人民币汇率周报：降息交易加码，美元弱势难挡

8 26 I2024 20111290 20249 9 7 Z0017101 1.............................................................1 1.1........................................................1 1.2..........................................................................2 1.2.1..............................................................................................2 1.2.2..............................................................................................4 1.3.............................................................................................4 2.................................................................................................5 2.1-..................................................................5 2.2.......................................................................5 2.2.1.....................................................................................5 2.2.2.....................................................................................5 2.2.3..................................................................................6 2.2.4..................................................................................7 3..........................................................................................8 3.1...................................................................8 3.2.............................................................................11 3.3..........................................................12 ...........................................................................................14 ..................................................................................................15 16 17 ......................................................................................................17 1.1.1 ..................................................................................................1 1.1.12024819823.1 1.1.2 .....................................................................2 1.2.1 ...................................................2 1.2.1 .............................................................................................3 1.2.2 PMI ................................................................................................4 2.2.1 ..........................................................5 2.2.2 .........................................................................6 2.2.3 .....................................................................7 2.2.4 NDF USDCNH .........................................................................7 2.2.5 USDCNY 25Delta %..........................7 3.3.1 2024.8.26-8.30 ................................12 1 .................................14 2 % ..................................................................15 3 ...................................................16 4 Shibor %............................................................................16 5 SOFR % .............................................................................16 6 %.................................................................................17 7 ....................................................................................17 1. 2024819823 82316:30 CFETSBISSDR 1.1.1 7.1464 7.1415 7.1228 7.1358 -0.148% USDCNY7.1680 7.1419 7.1339 7.1368 -0.435% USDCNH7.1743 7.1500 7.1155 7.1155 -0.820% 148.1485 146.4123 144.8879 144.8879 -2.201% 1.0996 1.1177 1.1070 1.1177 1.643% 1.2905 1.3195 1.2982 1.3195 2.250% 102.4129 101.8825 100.6815 100.6815 -1.691% CFETS98.39 —— —— 98.39 -0.508% 104.19 —— —— 104.19 -0.624% 93.1 —— —— 93.1 -0.580% ( BIS ) ( SDR iFinD ) 1.1 101 7.10 1.1.12024819 823 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.30108.00 7.25 107.00 106.00 105.00 104.00 7.20 103.00 7.15 102.00 101.00 100.00 7.10 2024-04-262024-05-262024-06-262024-07-26 99.00 : iFinD 1.2 3 9 9 1.2.1. 2024 20243 6.8 2.1 1.2.1 158723000 157905000 0.07% 588 158609000 157791000 0.11% 924 158430000 157612000 0.14% 1117 158214000 157396000 0.07% 559 iFinD 2024 I 2024 826 1.2.1 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 iFinD 2014-03 2014-09 2015-03 2015-09 2016-03 2016-09 2017-03 12 2017-09 ROE 2018-03 2018-09 TTM 2019-03 2019-09 2020-03 2020-09 2021-03 ( 2021-09 2022-03 % 2022-09 2023-03 2023-09 7 11.00 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 3 2024-03 I 2024 826 1.2.2 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00% -40.00% iFinD 1.2.2. 1.3 2010-01 2010-09 2011-05 2012-01 PMI 2012-09 2013-05 2014-01 % 2014-09 2015-05 2016-01 2016-09 2017-05 2018-01 2018-09 PMI 2019-05 2020-01 % 2020-09 2021-05 2022-01 2022-09 2023-05 57.00 55.00 53.00 51.00 49.00 47.00 45.00 4 2024-01 I2024826 2. - 2.1 8237.1358106 2.2 2.2.1 2.2.1 7.9500 7.7500 7.5500 7.3500 7.1500 6.9500 6.7500 6.5500 6.3500 iFinD 6.1500 7 7 2.2.2 5 2022-12 2.2.2 80.00% 75.00% 70.00% 65.00% 60.00% 55.00% iFinD 2.2.3 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 - 2023-07 2023-08 2023-0