东方电缆：海陆齐头并进，出海布局显锋芒

JKLM(603606.SH)/L[ \] JKLM#NOPQRSTUNVWXYZ ^_`a;</=>Iƒ2024b8c19d 23 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E p-qrs78&t 7,009 7,310 9,499 11,577 13,952 uvwyoy% -12% 4% 30% 22% 21% xyzs78&t 842 1,000 1,264 1,727 2,161 uvwyoy% -29% 19% 26% 37% 25% [5qfs&t 1.22 1.45 1.84 2.51 3.14 [5k|9o 0.94 1.73 0.69 1.55 1.98 x]~qfw 15% 16% 18% 20% 21% P/E 39.6 33.3 26.4 19.3 15.4 P/B 6.1 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.2 ƒ"#$%&'()=>?@ABCDE !"ffi$%48.48&'()%*+ ,-./01%S0740522020001 Email%zengbiao@zts.com.cn '()%23 ,-./01%S0740522040004 Email%wupeng@zts.com.cn CÄ%[5ÅÇÉÑÖÜ56ácâffiŠQåç5ffiéè2024W8ê16Iqíffi FGHI *+,- 456(785) 688 9:56(785) 688 !ffi(&) 48.48 !;(78&) 33,340 9:!;(78&) 33,340 ./012-3456fi8 40%!SØ$%&300 30% 20% 10% 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01 2024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 0% -10% -20% -30% 9:;< 1DEFGHIJKLM%NMOPQRSTNU 2DEFGVIJKLM23WFX Y%-Z[\]^Q24WN_`abc?defU3gDEFGhIJKLM24WHiFXY%Q1-Zjkl]^QNMO P?dm'efN_noU 456789:2024;<;=>2024;1<;@ABC40.68D>EF+10.3%>GHIJK6.44D>EF+4.5%>LJM22.4%>EF-6.2pctN24Q2@ABC27.58D>EF+22.6%>OF+110.4%>GHIJK3.81D>EF+5.5%>OF+ 44.6%>LJM22.5%>EF-4.6pct>OF+0.3pctPQRS78GHIJK@AOFTU>V,WXYZ[\]^C_TUP QRS78Z[\Y`C_a@AEOFTUP782024Q2@A[\Y`C_1 5.6D>EF+50%>OF+111%>V,Y78bcde[\f">ghi_jklAmN@AZ\Y`C_11.0Dn>EF+0.7%>OF+190%N@AZopqC_1.0Dn>EF-15%>OF-50%P jkrs6=tmuvw>78[\Y`x3y26D>Z\Y`zZopqx3y23DP[|8]12~>78fÇjk89.1D>ÅxZ\Y`29.5D>[\Y`45.2D>Zopq14.3D>220kVzÇ1Z\ÉÑÖ\ÜfÇjkáày22%>âäjkÜáày29%P âãåçé:è>êë@íìZîïPñâãóòô>24;1<;78öõúùûü†°j¢£§•¶ß>®¢£15Dn©™´¨Z\Y`TSØfj±>ÇËJgh¥µ*TSZ˚óòPñZåóòô>24;1<;®k墣CÈøâXlinksFirstÉXLCC78‘ªÇfioâäæø¿>E¡øâSSE¬vy1.5DnÉÇzInchCapeZ˚¬vy18Dnjk‹±>ƒ9;Sgh«A>ç»…0 ÀÃëZ˚ŒµP œJ–—ö¢£ƒ”6âãZ˚©™‘’ghêë>ÃëZ˚–m25;Ç)ë÷Œµ>78•-Z\ÿŸ>ç»…0⁄ ¤‹›JP–fi7824-26;@AGHIJK0fl-12.6/17.3/21.6Dn>EF+26%/+37%/+25%>‡w‘·‚„PE0fl-26/19/15‰>ÂbÊÁ_”ƒ”P ˚ÈTÍ6ÎÏÌz–mNæøêÓNWÔö·ÒIÛNØÙieÌz–mıP œJ–—ˆ !"#$% ®©:™7£ &'% ®©:™7£ ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ()*+ 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E ,-!. 2,142 2,112 2,663 3,607 /012 7,310 9,499 11,577 13,952 3145 0 0 0 0 /067 5,467 7,281 8,691 10,395 3189 2,684 3,488 4,251 5,123 :.;<= 49 47 57 68 >?89 79 105 126 150 @ABC 153 198 237 283 D, 2,148 2,860 3,414 4,083 EFBC 130 169 202 241 GH!" 554 719 877 1,057 IJBC 270 351 419 500 KLMN!" 864 1,097 1,318 1,570 OPBC 8 16 14 9 MN!"G) 7,917 9,662 11,772 14,534 QCRSTU -99 -30 -30 -30 KLVWX! 17 17 17 17 !"RSTU -29 -10 -5 -5 VWYZX! 48 48 48 48 [\]S^N1_ 9 10 10 10 `a!" 1,925 1,874 1,837 1,813 X!1_ 3 6 8 6 bcde 197 277 347 407 KL1_ 33 28 31 29 fg!" 364 381 396 410 /0&' 1,151 1,440 1,970 2,466 KLhMN!" 172 173 175 176 /0i12 0 1 0 1 hMN!"G) 2,723 2,771 2,820 2,870 /0ijk 5 3 3 4 !"G) 10,640 12,432 14,592 17,404 &'lm 1,146 1,438 1,967 2,463 nWo9 0 0 0 0 pq: 146 174 240 302 3?45 1,442 1,882 2,201 2,580 r&' 1,000 1,264 1,727 2,161 3?89 807 1,053 1,232 1,444 stYuT_ 0 0 0 0 >19v 0 0 1 1 wxy[zr&' 1,000 1,264 1,727 2,161 GH#$ 853 950 1,135 1,340 NOPLAT 1,007 1,279 1,739 2,169 KL3?9 25 25 25 25 EPS[|]~Y7ŠÅ1.451.842.513.14 Ç*ÉÑWÖhMN#$ 467 467 467 467 KLMN#$ 207 238 271 310 ÜáOPàâ MN#$G) 3,801 4,615 5,331 6,167 ()*+20232024E2025E2026E VWo9 353 353 353 453 6Väã 3?$å 0 0 0 0 /012çVâ 4.3% 29.9% 21.9% 20.5% KLhMN#$ 195 295 295 295 EBITçVâ 17.6% 26.0% 36.3% 24.8% hMN#$G) 549 649 649 749 wy[zr&'çVâ 18.7% 26.4% 36.7% 25.1% #$G) 4,349 5,263 5,979 6,916 é&äã wxy[zpèêZ_ 6,291 7,169 8,612 10,488 ë&â 25.2% 23.4% 24.9% 25.5% stYuZ_ 0 0 0 0 r&â 13.7% 13.3% 14.9% 15.5% pèêZ_G) 6,291 7,169 8,612 10,488 ROE 15.9% 17.6% 20.1% 20.6% #$íYuZ_10,64012,43214,59217,404 ROIC 16.6% 18.3% 21.1% 21.7% ì$äã î.Mï%®©:™7£ !"#$â 40.9% 42.3% 41.0% 39.7% ()*+20232024E2025E2026E $PZ_à 16.1% 15.6% 13.0% 11.6% ñ/óNî.M 1,190 473 1,069 1,358 MNàâ 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.4 î.1_ 1,169 1,470 1,929 2,357 òNàâ 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 D,ôö -827 -712 -554 -669 /õäã ñ/ú31ôö -218 -820 -778 -892 l!"ùûâ 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 ñ/ú3?ôö 586 686 499 591 3189ùûüt 124 117 120 121 KLôö 480 -151 -26 -29 3?89ùûüt 51 46 47 46 X!óNî.M -596 -221 -219 -221 D,ùûüt 114 124 130 130 !7jk -533 -236 -236 -236 †Y°¢[£Å YZX! -21 0 0 0 †Y1_ 1.45 1.84 2.51 3.14 KLVW!"^§ -42 15 17 15 †Yñ/î.M 1.73 0.69 1.55 1.97 •!óNî.M -561 -282 -298 -194 †Yr!" 9.15 10.42 12.52 15.25 o9ç= -349 0 0 100 ¶Sàâ Y&;&ßj? -206 -211 -280 -348 P/E 33.3 26.4 19.3 15.4 Yu•! 0 0 0 0 P/B 5.3 4.7 3.9 3.2 KLôö -6 -71 -18 54 EV/EBITDA 41 33 25 20 !"#Wind$%&'()*+ FGƒ"fg# ƒ” ¯. ‘˘ƒ” Á_ –m˙˚6~12¸]ã˝‚Emj˛2ˇ!"f15%Ç1 ¤b –m˙˚6~12¸]ã˝‚Emj˛2ˇ!"f5%~15%(# bç –m˙˚6~12¸]ã˝‚Emj˛2ˇ!"f-10%~+5%(# $b –m˙˚6~12¸]ã˝‚Emj˛2ˇ%"f10%Ç1 &fƒ” ¤b –m˙˚6~12¸]ã‚Emj˛2ˇ!"f10%Ç1 x' –m˙˚6~12¸]ã‚Emj˛2ˇ!"f-10%~+10%(# $b –m˙˚6~12¸]ã‚Emj˛2ˇ%"f10%Ç1 ()6ƒ”3˛-=t9:~)*6~12¸]ã78‘·*+&f2ˇ3˝‚Emj˛2ˇ*˝‚óòˆAPÅxA‘óòÇ-.3002ˇ-j˛N/01óòÇ0122*3‚¶ß453*3+016ó2ˇ*3‚6ó453*3-j˛N78óòÇ9:;<Jxâ2ˇ-j˛>=‘óòÇ3>5002ˇ+?@ABC§2ˇ-j˛*Dç¯.*Eå3P Ø"ø$% xFGH‘IçJ78*ÇKLMÊN78”3OçxâGHPQRSTUVWX*GH¢£YZf"£ÒP N=t[\N78*]^_`PN78ÌVXaCbCcN=tdeÅ-]^P N=tjfN78zÅghbU^-Xi*7j£ö+@±kg£ö>lmn•o*ghp˜>¿ÏqrÉ ]ps7&>tuÌ vwx0S*yz+[|PN78¿Ï]Ì~G¬ÄiÅ*˛]'sÇÉ'>AN=tx*£öÉzÖÉ–—alm=tÜá7j9:¡*àâ>XÙVffi¡kÉPN78‚N=tãåiÅXfÌ9çéè*rêK6çëí>¢£o„‡ì&î)˝„*ï/+ëíPN=tãñ*£öÉpOÉzÖÉiÅzó—òT\ô]^•öõ(`>Ìú2vw¢£ÉùûÉVfi+ü"*†°¢•©ß>N78Ì£=tx*ã