Summary:
Between 2020 and 2022, an unprecedented surge in illegal Tunisian migration to Western Europe occurred via Serbia as an alternative to the more monitored Mediterranean route. This shift was primarily driven by deteriorating economic conditions in Tunisia due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent coup led by President Kais Saied, which isolated Tunisia from international donors and investors.
The route through Serbia was seen as safer and less monitored compared to the Mediterranean route. The key pull factors in Europe included the involvement of North African smuggling networks that organized passage from Serbia to Hungary and beyond, and Serbia's ambiguous stance towards illegal migration which it used to secure political leverage.
The transit of Tunisian migrants through Serbia was financially supported by the European diaspora in the region, and the Tunisian government welcomed this as it ensured higher remittances without having to admit responsibility. The migrants themselves were largely from the marginalized region of Tataouine.
In 2022, the Serbian government closed the visa-free regime for Tunisians, effectively ending this route. However, the underlying dynamics - involving the interplay of economic pressures, political leverage, and the actions of smugglers and transit states - suggest that similar actions could be repeated in the future, and that the EU's strategy for dealing with illegal migration must evolve to address these complex, interconnected factors.
