2016 年北约峰会 ： 从保证到威慑。真正的利害关系是什么 ？

NATO's upcoming summit in Warsaw aims to strengthen its presence in Eastern and Southern Europe, primarily in response to Russia's actions in Ukraine, and conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. The summit's agenda includes military reinforcement of the alliance's eastern border, enhanced cooperation with the European Union in areas like cyber and hybrid warfare, addressing the refugee crisis, and stabilisation missions.

Despite broad discussions and agreements on these issues, doubts remain about the new military boost's sufficiency to deter Russia. The level of US engagement in Europe and the commitment of European partners to increase their defense spending will be scrutinized. It's unlikely that the current engagement balance will change significantly in the near future, especially given the upcoming US presidential election and the UK's decision on its EU membership.

A significant upgrade of NATO's military presence in the Baltic states and Poland will be discussed, involving the deployment of four multinational battalions. This move is part of a broader shift in NATO's defense posture, including a larger NATO Response Force, a new rapid reaction Spearhead Force, and eight new headquarters in the eastern part of the alliance. Starting in 2017, the US plans to rotate an armoured brigade across six countries in Eastern and Central Europe.

However, there are concerns that the size and suitability of the suggested US armoured brigade may not provide adequate insurance against Russian aggression. Military experts have noted multiple shortcomings in the current NATO posture and the planned increase in the rotational military presence. For instance, while the current posture may not be capable of successfully defending the most exposed NATO members, a force of about seven brigades, including three heavy armored brigades, supported by airpower, land-based fires, and other enablers, could potentially prevent Russia from rapidly overrunning the Baltic states.

Despite these efforts, there is little hope for a de-escalation of tensions with Russia, and uncertainty about Europe's future stability and security is growing. NATO-Russia relations, particularly regarding defense, deterrence, and open dialogue, remain complex and challenging.