The political situation in Venezuela is deteriorating rapidly, marked by increasing violence and social unrest in a divided, impoverished, violent, and economically collapsing nation. This tension has led to the announcement of a National Constituent Assembly by President Nicolas Maduro on May 1st, aimed at drafting a new constitution that would replace the existing one from 1999, which was heavily influenced by Hugo Chavez. The proposed Constituent Assembly is seen as a risky move due to the current heightened political climate, reminiscent of the only electoral defeat Chavez faced in 2007.
The Constituent Assembly's composition is highly controversial, with the president aiming for a majority from the "working class" and local communities. Critics fear this could result in a non-competitive, single-party system that eliminates democratic principles such as division of powers, direct, universal, and secret elections. The opposition boycotted the assembly invitation, considering it a power grab by the regime.
Internationally, Venezuela's position is weakening, with its recent exclusion from the Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union, and its suspension from Mercosur. The government has sought alternative support, notably from China and Russia, and diversified its international trade, with China becoming Venezuela's second-largest trading partner.
Venezuela's transition towards authoritarianism, while maintaining democratic rhetoric through a lack of transparency, is evident in the escalating violence and the breakdown of institutions. The President has avoided holding regional or municipal elections, fearing loss, instead opting for a Constituent Assembly to secure his position until the next presidential elections in 2018.
Despite international efforts for a negotiated solution, the gap between the government and opposition remains wide, with no signs of reconciliation. The democratic sentiment among citizens remains strong, as shown by Latinobarometer surveys. However, the country faces significant challenges: hyperinflation, resource mismanagement, and a high debt level, exacerbating the economic crisis.
The military supports the Constituent Assembly, seeing it as a defense mechanism against what they perceive as a potential democratic break. Civilian militias, under their control, are also mentioned. The risk of violent implosion and escalated repression increases as the political and social fractures deepen. The country's deepening crisis is having severe consequences on its people, with no clear path out of the current predicament.
