突尼斯在经济上是漂泊

Tunisia's economic situation, as highlighted in the notes from the CIDOB institute, reflects a stark reality following the Jasmine Revolution in 2011, which toppled the Ben Ali regime. The country faces significant economic challenges, with a considerable portion of its population, approximately 20%, living in poverty. This poverty stems from a dramatic decline in the country's wealth, which fell from $44.8 billion in 2008 to just under $40 billion in the last recorded year, with a projected drop to $35.2 billion by 2020.

Young, educated individuals continue to leave Tunisia for opportunities in Europe, particularly France, Germany, and Italy. Political disengagement among the populace is evident, as they are disillusioned by a political landscape characterized by low comedy, corruption, and the misuse of statistics.

Economic indicators paint a picture of stagnation and decline. GDP per capita has decreased by nearly one-fifth since 2011, standing at around $4000 currently, and is forecast to fall below $3000. Investment in the economy has significantly reduced, falling from over 30% in the 1980s to 20% last year. Savings have also halved to 8.9% from their previous levels a decade ago.

Unemployment remains a critical issue, weakening the economy and political stability. The economic, social, and educational divides between the relatively prosperous coast and the poorer hinterland are pronounced, making Tunisia two distinct economies.

Despite the economic downturn, the Tunisian economy is sustained by international aid, requiring approximately $10 billion this year according to government estimates. The cost of borrowing has risen compared to previous years, but the IMF considers Tunisia's debt level manageable due to low-interest rates and long maturities on loans from international institutions.

However, the budget deficit has been consolidated, dropping from 6.1% of GDP in 2017 to 4.8% in the last reported year, but this comes at the expense of the public employee wage bill, which has increased by 112% between 2010 and 2017, and public debt, which has risen from 39% of GDP in 2010 to 71.7% in 2018.

Public investment has decreased from 7.2% of GDP in 2011 to 5.4% in the last year, and state income from taxation has increased, but the costs of transport and food have disproportionately affected poorer and middle-income Tunisians. Young entrepreneurs struggle to obtain loans without property as collateral, with 46% of micro-enterprises borrowing informally.

Inflationary pressures have led to higher transportation and food costs, affecting the purchasing power of Tunisians. The banking sector has enjoyed record returns on capital and profits, with BIAT, a leading bank, achieving a return on assets between 15-20%.

Despite these challenges, the IMF-supported $2.9 billion package is progressing, and Tunisia continues to receive support from international partners like the World Bank, the European Union, the World Bank, and the African Development Bank. However, state debt has tripled since 2011, and rising interest rates are affecting investment.

Tunisia inherited a financially healthy country with a sizeable sum from the privatization of Tunisie Telecom in 2011, where state salaries accounted for a third of their current level. However, the production of phosphates has collapsed from 7.5 million tons in 2010 to 3.3 million tons in the last year, and the number of Tunisians investing in the economy has decreased.