除了选举之外 ， 英国退欧的泥潭仍在继续

CIDOB Opinion 603 highlights the complexities surrounding the upcoming British General Election, emphasizing the unprecedented level of uncertainty and voter dissatisfaction. The election is notably seen as a battle between two unpopularity leaders - Boris Johnson, advocating for a "done" Brexit without clarity on the economic model, and Jeremy Corbyn, promising substantial spending, nationalization of companies, and a second referendum on Brexit.

The document underlines the lack of widespread enthusiasm, reminiscent of Tony Blair's successful campaign in 1997, which relied on significant investment in public services while maintaining the existing economic framework. Instead, today's electorate is disillusioned with the parties' inability to provide clear solutions to the pressing issues of Brexit, economic stability, and the role of government.

Electoral volatility is described as a long-term trend in British politics, with an increasing number of parties attracting voter support. This election's outcome is unpredictable, with the potential for a repeat of the 2017 election, resulting in a hung parliament.

The document also discusses the ongoing quagmire of Brexit, which remains unresolved despite the election. The implications of Brexit, including the future relationship with Scotland, the role of government in the economy, and the special relationship with the United States, are key concerns. The impact of Brexit has intensified regional divisions, particularly in Scotland, where loyalty to traditional parties is fading, and voters are increasingly polarized around the union with the UK.

The election presents challenges for economic policy, with the uncertainty of trade relationships, especially concerning access to markets and adherence to EU regulations. The risk of unfair competition from a less regulated UK implies that any trade deal would likely involve strict compliance with EU laws regarding workers' rights, environmental standards, state aid, and other rules.

The document concludes by noting that, regardless of the election's outcome, the Brexit quagmire will persist. The UK's relationship with Europe, its future ties with Scotland, and the role of government in the economy remain unresolved issues. The document suggests that the election's results may not fully address these concerns, potentially leading to further uncertainty and a continuation of the current political deadlock.